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Presenters-0431 + (CSDMS’s newly released Python Modeling Too … CSDMS’s newly released Python Modeling Tool (PyMT) is an open source python package that provides convenient tools for coupling of models that use the Basic Model Interface. Historically, earth-surface process models have often been complex and difficult to work with. To help improve this situation and make the discovery process more efficient, the CSDMS Python Modeling Tool (PyMT) provides an environment in which community-built numerical models and tools can be initialized and run directly from a Python command line or Jupyter notebook. To illustrate how PyMT works and the advantages it provides, we will present a demonstration of two coupled models. By simplifying the process of learning, operating, and coupling models, PyMT frees researchers to focus on exploring ideas, testing hypotheses, and comparing models with data.ypotheses, and comparing models with data.)
Presenters-0437 + (CSDMS’s newly released Python Modeling Too … CSDMS’s newly released Python Modeling Tool (PyMT) is an open source Python package that provides convenient tools for coupling models that use the Basic Model Interface. Historically, earth-surface process models have often been complex and difficult to work with. To help improve this situation and make the discovery process more efficient, PyMT provides an environment in which community-built numerical models and tools can be initialized and run directly from a Python command line or a Jupyter Notebook. To illustrate how PyMT works and the advantages it provides, we will present a demonstration of two coupled models. By simplifying the process of learning, operating, and coupling models, PyMT frees researchers to focus on exploring ideas, testing hypotheses, and comparing models with data. Pre-registration required. ''See also: https://pymt.readthedocs.io/en/latest/''t;''See also: https://pymt.readthedocs.io/en/latest/'')
Presenters-0546 + (Changing depth to water table and the asso … Changing depth to water table and the associated stored water volume is a crucial component of the global hydrological cycle, with impacts on climate and sea level. However, long-term changes in global water-table distribution are not well understood. Coupled ground- and surface-water models are key to understanding the hydrologic evolution of post-glacial landscapes, the significance of terrestrial water storage, and the interrelationships between freshwater and climate. Here, I present the Water Table Model (WTM), which is capable of computing changes in water table elevation at large spatial scales and over long temporal scales. The WTM comprises groundwater and dynamic lake components to incorporate lakes into water-table elevation estimates. Sample results on both artificial and real-world topographies demonstrate the two-way coupling between dynamic surface-water and groundwater levels and flow.ace-water and groundwater levels and flow.)
Presenters-0600 + (Cheniers are ridges consisting of coarse-g … Cheniers are ridges consisting of coarse-grained sediments, resting on top of muddy sediment. Along these muddy coastlines, cheniers provide shelter against wave attack, mitigating erosion or even enhancing accretion. As such, cheniers play an important role in the dynamics of the entire coastal landscape. This research focused on cheniers along mangrove-mud coasts. Therefore, chenier dynamics needed to be understood at the temporal and spatial scales of the mangrove vegetation as well. We developed a hybrid modelling approach, combining the strengths of complex process-based modelling (Delft3D), which allowed us to model the mixed-sediment dynamics at small temporal and spatial scales, with the strengths of a highly idealized profile model, providing low computational efforts for larger temporal and spatial scales.ts for larger temporal and spatial scales.)
Presenters-0457 + (Climate and tectonics ultimately drive the … Climate and tectonics ultimately drive the physical and chemical surface processes that evolve landscape structure, including the connectivity of landscape portions that facilitate or impede movement of organismal populations. Connectivity controls population spatial distribution, drives speciation where populations spatially fragment, and increases extinction susceptibility of species where its habitat shrinks. Here I demonstrate the role that landscape evolution models can have in exploring these process linkages in investigations of species diversification driven by climatic and tectonic forcings. The models were built with the tool, SpeciesEvolver that constructs lineages in response to environmental change at geologic, macroevolutionary, and landscape scales. I will also suggest how future studies can use landscape evolution models and tools such as SpeciesEvolver to pursue questions regarding the mechanisms by which lineages respond to the drivers and details of landscape evolution, and taxon-specific and region-specific interactions between biotas and their environments.ons between biotas and their environments.)
Presenters-0544 + (Climate-induced disturbances are expected … Climate-induced disturbances are expected to increase in frequency and intensity and affect coastal wetland ecosystem mainly through altering its hydrology. Investigating how wetland hydrology responds to climate disturbances is an important first step to understand the ecological response of coastal wetlands to these disturbances. In this talk, I am going to introduce my research work on improving the understanding of how the water storage of coastal wetlands at North Carolina, Delaware Bay, and the entire southeast U.S. changes under climatic disturbances. In particular, I will address the uncertainties in estimating water flow through coastal wetlands by considering 1) the regional-scale hydrologic interaction between uplands, coastal wetlands, and the ocean and 2) the impact of coastal eco-geomorphologic change on the freshwater and saltwater interaction on coastal marshlands.ltwater interaction on coastal marshlands.)
Presenters-0173 + (Closing of the meeting)
Presenters-0464 + (Cloud computing is a powerful tool for bot … Cloud computing is a powerful tool for both analyzing large datasets and running models. This clinic will provide an introduction to approaches for accessing and using cloud resources for research in the Geosciences. During the hands-on portion of this clinic, participants will learn how to use Amazon Web Services (AWS) to open a terminal, analyze model output in python, and run a model, time permitting. This workshop assumes no experience with cloud computing.ssumes no experience with cloud computing.)
Presenters-0410 + (Coastal Risk is a flood and natural hazard … Coastal Risk is a flood and natural hazard risk assessment technology company. Our mission is to help individuals, businesses and governments in the US and around the world achieve resilience and sustainability. In the past year, Coastal Risk’s Technology supported nearly $2 billion in US commercial real estate investment and development. Coastal Risk’s unique business model combines high-tech, flood, climate and natural hazards risk assessments and high-value, risk communication reports with personalized, resilience-accelerating advice for individuals, corporations and governments. Our risk modeling and reports help save lives and property in the US. In order to take our system around the world, however, we need higher resolution DEMs. The 30m resolution currently available is a big obstacle to going international. This is something that we would like to get from NASA. Also, we are interested in high-resolution, “before-and-after” satellite imagery of flooded areas to compare with our modeling and to help individuals, businesses and governments understand how to better defend against floods. understand how to better defend against floods.)
Presenters-0545 + (Coastal communities facing shoreline erosi … Coastal communities facing shoreline erosion preserve their beaches both for recreation and for property protection. One approach is nourishment, the placement of externally-sourced sand to increase the beach’s width, forming an ephemeral protrusion that requires periodic re-nourishment. Nourishments add value to beachfront properties, thereby affecting re-nourishment choices for an individual community. However, the shoreline represents an alongshore-connected system, such that morphodynamics in one community are influenced by actions in neighboring communities. Prior research suggests coordinated nourishment decisions between neighbors were economically optimal, though many real-world communities have failed to coordinate, and the geomorphic consequences of which are unknown. Toward understanding this geomorphic-economic relationship, we develop a coupled model representing two neighboring communities and an adjacent non-managed shoreline. Within this framework, we examine scenarios where communities coordinate nourishment choices to maximize their joint net benefit versus scenarios where decision-making is uncoordinated such that communities aim to maximize their independent net benefits. We examine how community-scale property values affect choices produced by each management scheme and the economic importance of coordinating. The geo-economic model produces four behaviors based on nourishment frequency: seaward growth, hold the line, slow retreat, and full retreat. Under current conditions, coordination is strongly beneficial for wealth-asymmetric systems, where less wealthy communities acting alone risk nourishing more than necessary relative to their optimal frequency under coordination. For a future scenario, with increased material costs and background erosion due to sea-level rise, less wealthy communities might be unable to afford nourishing their beach independently and thus lose their beachfront properties.and thus lose their beachfront properties.)
Presenters-0104 + (Coastal environments are complex because o … Coastal environments are complex because of the interplay between aeolian and nearshore processes. Waves, currents, tides, and winds drive significant short term (<weekly) changes to coastal landforms which augment longer term (> annual) geomorphic trends. Great strides have been made in recent years regarding our ability to model coastal geomorphic change in this range of societally relevant time scales. However, a great disparity exists in modeling coastal evolution because subaqueous and subaerial processes are typically assessed completely independent of one another. By neglecting the co-evolution of subtidal and supratidal regions within our current framework, we are precluded from fully capturing non-linear dynamics of these complex systems. This has implications for predicting coastal change during both fair weather and storm conditions, hindering our ability to answer important scientific questions related to coastal vulnerability and beach building. Recognizing these historic limitations, here we present the outline for a coupled subaqueous (XBeach) and subaerial (Coastal Dune Model) morphodynamic modeling system that is in active development with the goal of exploring coastal co-evolution on daily to decadal timescales. Furthermore we present recently collected datasets of beach and dune morphology in the Pacific Northwest US that will be used to validate trends observed within the coupled model platform. validate trends observed within the coupled model platform.)
Presenters-0637 + (Coastal flooding and related hazards have … Coastal flooding and related hazards have increasingly become one of the most impactful events as climate change continues to change the risk due to these events. Measuring the change in the risk of a particular flood level has therefore taken on a greater urgency, as historic measurements and statistics are no longer sufficient to measure the risk to coastal communities. Enabling our ability to compute these changes has become the focus as adaptation strategies due to the changing climate become increasingly critical. This talk will outline some of these challenges and ways we are attempting to address the problem in a multi-hazard aware way.s the problem in a multi-hazard aware way.)
Presenters-0077 + (Coastal morphological evolution is caused … Coastal morphological evolution is caused by a wide range of coupled cross-shore and alongshore sediment transport processes associated with short waves, infragravity waves, and wave-induced currents. However, the fundamental transport mechanisms occur within the thin bottom boundary layer and are dictated by turbulence-sediment interaction and inter-granular interactions. In the past decade, significant progresses have been made in modeling sediment transport using Eulerian-Eulerian or Eulerian-Lagrangian two-phase flow approach. However, most of these models are limited to one-dimensional-vertical (1DV) formulation, which is only applicable to Reynolds-averaged sheet flow condition. Consequently, complex processes such as instabilities of the transport layer, bedform dynamics and turbulence-resolving capability cannot be simulated. The main objective of my research study was to develop a multi-dimensional four-way coupled two-phase model for sediment transport that can be used for Reynolds-averaged modeling for large-scale applications or for turbulence-resolving simulations at small-scale.ence-resolving simulations at small-scale.)
Presenters-0615 + (Coastal systems are an environmental sink … Coastal systems are an environmental sink for a wide range of materials of scientific interest, including sediments, nutrients, plastics, oils, seeds, and wood, to name only a few. Due to differences in material properties such as buoyancy, each of these materials are liable to have characteristic transport pathways which differ from the mean flow and each other, hydraulically “sorting” these materials in space. However, it remains difficult to quantify these differences in transport, due in part to the use of disparate models and approaches for each respective material. In this talk, I will advance a novel modeling framework for simulating the patterns of transport for a wide range of fluvially-transported materials using a single unified reduced-complexity approach, allowing us to compare and quantify differences in transport between materials. Using a hydrodynamic model coupled with the stochastic Lagrangian particle-routing model “dorado,” we are able to simulate at the process-level how local differences in material buoyancy lead to emergent changes in partitioning and nourishment in river deltaic systems. I will show some of the insights we have learned regarding the tendency for materials to be autogenically sorted in space, as well as progress we have made bridging between the process-level framework used in dorado and more physics-based approaches based on transport theory.ased approaches based on transport theory.)
Presenters-0139 + (Computer models help us explore the conseq … Computer models help us explore the consequences of scientific hypotheses at a level of precision and quantification that is impossible for our unaided minds. The process of writing and debugging the necessary code is often time-consuming, however, and this cost can inhibit progress. The code-development barrier can be especially problematic when a field is rapidly unearthing new data and new ideas, as is presently the case in surface dynamics. To help meet the need for rapid, flexible model development, we have written a prototype software framework for two-dimensional numerical modeling of planetary surface processes. The Landlab software can be used to develop new models from scratch, to create models from existing components, or a combination of the two. Landlab provides a gridding module that allows you to create and configure a model grid in just a few lines of code. Grids can be regular or unstructured, and can readily be used to implement staggered-grid numerical solutions to equations for various types of geophysical flow. The gridding module provides built-in functions for common numerical operations, such as calculating gradients and integrating fluxes around the perimeter of cells. Landlab is written in Python, a high-level language that enables rapid code development and takes advantage of a wealth of libraries for scientific computing and graphical output. Landlab also provides a framework for assembling new models from combinations of pre-built components. In this clinic we introduce Landlab and its capabilities. We emphasize in particular its flexibility, and the speed with which new models can be developed under its framework. In particular, we will introduce the many tools available within Landlab that make development of new functionality and new descriptions of physical processes both easy and fast. Participants will finish the clinic with all the knowledge necessary to build, run and visualize 2D models of various types of earth surface systems using Landlab.2D models of various types of earth surface systems using Landlab.)
Presenters-0003 + (D-Claw is an extension of the software pac … D-Claw is an extension of the software package GeoClaw (www.clawpack.org) for simulating flows of granular-fluid mixtures with evolving volume fractions. It was developed primarily for landslides, debris flows and related phenomena by incorporating principles of solid, fluid and soil mechanics. However, because the two-phase model accommodates variable phase concentrations, it can also be used to model fluid problems in the absence of solid content (the model equations reduce to the shallow water equations as the solid phase vanishes). We therefore use D-Claw to seamlessly simulate multifaceted problems that involve the interaction of granular-fluid mixtures and bodies of water. This includes a large number of cascading natural hazards, such as debris-avalanches and lahars that enter rivers and lakes, landslide-generated tsunamis, landslide dams and outburst floods that entrain debris, and debris-laden tsunami inundation. I will describe the basis of D-Claw's model equations and highlight some recent applications, including the 2015 Tyndall Glacier landslide and tsunami, potential lahars on Mt. Rainier that displace dammed reservoirs, and a hypothetical landslide-generated lake outburst flood near Sisters, Oregon. lake outburst flood near Sisters, Oregon.)
Presenters-0432 + (DES3D (Dynamic Earth Solver in Three Dimen … DES3D (Dynamic Earth Solver in Three Dimensions) is a flexible, open-source finite element solver that models momentum balance and heat transfer in elasto-visco-plastic material in the Lagrangian form using unstructured meshes. It provides a modeling platform for long-term tectonics as well as various problems in civil and geotechnical engineering. On top of the OpenMP multi-thread parallelism, DES3D has recently adopted CUDA for GPU computing. The CUDA-enabled version shows speedup of two to three orders of magnitude compared to the single-thread performance, making high-resolution 3D models affordable. This clinic will provide an introduction to DynEarthSol3D’s features and capabilities and hands-on tutorials to help beginners start using the code for simple tectonic scenarios. Impact of the two types of parallelization on performance will be demonstrated as well. performance will be demonstrated as well.)
Presenters-0111 + (Dakota (https://dakota.sandia.gov) is an o … Dakota (https://dakota.sandia.gov) is an open-source software toolkit, designed and developed at Sandia National Laboratories, that provides a library of iterative systems analysis methods, including sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, optimization, and parameter estimation. Dakota can be used to answer questions such as:* What are the important parameters in my model?* How safe, robust, and reliable is my model?* What parameter values best match my observational data?Dakota has been installed on the CSDMS supercomputer, ''beach.colorado.edu'', and is available to all registered users. The full set of Dakota methods can be invoked from the command line on ''beach''; however, this requires detailed knowledge of Dakota, including how to set up a Dakota input file and how to pass parameters and responses between a model and Dakota. To make Dakota more accessible to the CSDMS community, a subset of its functionality has been configured to run through the CSDMS Web Modeling Tool (WMT; https://csdms.colorado.edu/wmt). WMT currently provides access to Dakota's vector, centered, and multidimensional parameter study methods. In this clinic, we'll provide an overview of Dakota, then, through WMT, set up and perform a series of numerical experiments with Dakota on ''beach'', and evaluate the results.Other material can be downloaded from: https://github.com/mdpiper/dakota-tutorial. from: https://github.com/mdpiper/dakota-tutorial. )
Presenters-0068 + (Dakota is a flexible toolkit with algorith … Dakota is a flexible toolkit with algorithms for parameter optimization, uncertainty quantification, parameter estimation, and sensitivity analysis. In this clinic we will work through examples of using Dakota to compare field observations with model output using methods of sensitivity analysis and parameter optimization. We will also examine how the choice of comparison metrics influences results. Methods will be presented in the context of the Landlab Earth-surface dynamics framework but are generalizable to other models. Participants who are not familiar with Landlab are encouraged (but not required) to sign up for the Landlab clinic, which will take place before this clinic. Participants are encouraged to install both Landlab and Dakota on their computers prior to the clinic. Installation instructions for Landlab can be found at: http://landlab.github.io (select "Install" from the menu bar at the top of the page). Installation instructions for Dakota can be found at https://dakota.sandia.gov/content/install-dakota.d at https://dakota.sandia.gov/content/install-dakota.)
Presenters-0021 + (Dakota is a flexible toolkit with algorith … Dakota is a flexible toolkit with algorithms for parameter optimization, uncertainty quantification, parameter estimation, and sensitivity analysis. In this clinic we will cover the basics of the Dakota framework, work through examples of using Dakota to compare field observations with model output using methods of sensitivity analysis and parameter optimization, and briefly cover the theoretical background of the Dakota methods used. If time permits, we will examine how the choice of comparison metrics influences results. Methods will be presented in the context of the Landlab Earth-surface dynamics framework but are generalizable to other models. Participants who are not familiar with Landlab are encouraged (but not required) to sign up for the Landlab clinic, which will take place before this clinic. Participants do not need to install Landlab or Dakota prior to the clinic but will need to sign up for a Hydroshare account. https://www.hydroshare.org/sign-up/. For those students interested in installing Landlab or Dakota: Installation instructions for Landlab can be found at: http://landlab.github.io (select "Install" from the menu bar at the top of the page). Installation instructions for Dakota can be found at https://dakota.sandia.gov/content/install-dakota.d at https://dakota.sandia.gov/content/install-dakota.)
Presenters-0143 + (Dakota is an open-source toolkit with seve … Dakota is an open-source toolkit with several types of algorithms, including sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), optimization, and parameter calibration. Dakota provides a flexible, extensible interface between computational simulation codes and iterative analysis methods such as UQ and SA methods. Dakota has been designed to run on high-performance computing platforms and handles a variety of parallelism. In this clinic, we will provide an overview of Dakota algorithms, specifically focusing on uncertainty quantification (including various types of sampling, reliability analysis, stochastic expansion, and epistemic methods), sensitivity analysis (including variance-based decomposition methods and design of experiments), and parameter calibration (including nonlinear least squares and Bayesian methods). The tutorial will provide an overview of the methods and discuss how to use them. In addition, we will briefly cover how to interface your simulation code to Dakota. interface your simulation code to Dakota.)
Presenters-0551 + (Data component is a software tool that wra … Data component is a software tool that wraps an API for a data source with a Basic Model Interface (BMI). It is designed to provide a consistent way to access various types of datasets and subsets of them without needing to know the original data API. Each data component can also interact with numerical models that are wrapped in the pymt modeling framework. This webinar will introduce the data component concept with a demonstration of several examples for time series, raster, and multidimensional space-time data.ter, and multidimensional space-time data.)
Presenters-0581 + (Debris flows pose a substantial threat to … Debris flows pose a substantial threat to downstream communities in mountainous regions across the world, and there is a continued need for methods to delineate hazard zones associated with debris-flow inundation. Here we present ProDF, a reduced-complexity debris-flow inundation model. We calibrated and tested ProDF against observed debris-flow inundation from eight study sites across the western United States. While the debris flows at these sites varied in initiation mechanism, volume, and flow characteristics, results show that ProDF is capable of accurately reproducing observed inundation in different settings and geographic areas. ProDF reproduced observed inundation while maintaining computational efficiency, suggesting the model may be applicable in rapid hazard assessment scenarios.able in rapid hazard assessment scenarios.)
Presenters-0537 + (Decision framing is a key, early step in a … Decision framing is a key, early step in any effective decision support engagement in which modelers aim to inform decision and policy making. In this clinic participants will work through and share the results of decision framing exercises for a variety of policy decisions. We will organize the exercise using the XLRM elicitation, commonly used in decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) stakeholder engagements. The XLRM framework is useful because it helps organize relevant factors into the components of a decision-centric analysis. The letters X, L, R, and M refer to four categories of factors important to RDM analysis: outcome measures (M) that reflect decision makers’ goals; policy levers (L) that decision makers use to pursue their goals; uncertainties (X) that may affect the connection between policy choices and outcomes; and relationships (R), often instantiated in mathematical simulation models, between uncertainties and levers and outcomes.een uncertainties and levers and outcomes.)
Presenters-0624 + (Deep-learning emulators permit to reduce d … Deep-learning emulators permit to reduce dramatically the computational times for solving physical models. Trained from a state-of-the-art high-order ice flow model, the Instructed Glacier Model (IGM, https://github.com/jouvetg/igm) is an easy-to-use python code based on the Tensorflow library that can simulate the 3D evolution of glaciers several orders of magnitude faster than the instructor model with minor loss of accuracy. Switching to Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) permits additional significant speed-ups, especially when modeling large-scale glacier networks and/or high spatial resolutions. Taking advantage of GPUs, IGM can also track a massive amount of particles moving within the ice flow, opening new perspectives for modeling debris transportation of any size (e.g., erratic boulders). Here I give an overview of IGM, illustrate its potential to simulate paleo and future glacier evolution in the Alps together with particle tracking applications, and do a quick live demo of the model.ns, and do a quick live demo of the model.)

Presenters-0470 + (Delta morphology)

Presenters-0080 + (Deltas are highly sensitive to local human … Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. In this talk, I’ll discuss a recently developed risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea level rise, and the expected impact on flood risk. We apply this framework to an integrated set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major deltas to quantify how delta flood risk due to extreme events is changing over time. Although geophysical and relative sea-level rise derived risks are distributed across all levels of economic development, wealthy countries effectively limit their present-day threat by gross domestic product–enabled infrastructure and coastal defense investments. However, when investments do not address the long-term drivers of land subsidence and relative sea-level rise, overall risk can be very sensitive to changes in protective capability. For instance, we show how in an energy-constrained future scenario, such protections will probably prove to be unsustainable, raising relative risks by four to eight times in the Mississippi and Rhine deltas and by one-and-a-half to four times in the Chao Phraya and Yangtze deltas. This suggests that the current emphasis on short-term solutions on the world’s deltas will greatly constrain options for designing sustainable solutions in the long term.ng sustainable solutions in the long term.)
Presenters-0565 + (Developed barriers are tightly-coupled sys … Developed barriers are tightly-coupled systems driven by feedbacks between natural processes and human decisions to maintain development. Coastal property markets are dynamically linked to the physical environment: large tax revenues and high-value infrastructure necessitate defensive coastal management through beach nourishment, dune development, overwash removal, and construction of hard structures. In turn, changes to environmental characteristics such as proximity to the beach, beach width, and the height of dunes influence coastal property values. In this talk I will use a new exploratory model framework – the CoAStal Community-lAnDscape Evolution (CASCADE) model – to explore the coupled evolution of coastal real estate markets and barrier landscapes. The framework couples two geomorphic models of barrier evolution (Barrier3D and BRIE) with an agent-based real estate model – the Coastal Home Ownership Model (CHOM). CHOM receives information about the coastal environment and acts on that information to cause change to the environment, including decisions about beach nourishment and dune construction and maintenance. Through this coupled model framework, I will show how the effects of dune and beach management strategies employed in the wake of extreme storms cascade through decades to alter the evolution of barriers, inadvertently inhibiting their resilience to sea level rise and storms, and ultimately unraveling coastal real estate markets.ly unraveling coastal real estate markets.)
Presenters-0613 + (Developers of solvers for PDE-based models … Developers of solvers for PDE-based models and other computationally intensive tasks are confronted with myriad complexity, from science requirements to algorithms and data structures to GPU programming models. We will share a fresh approach that has delivered order of magnitude speedups in computational mechanics workloads, minimizing incidental complexity while offering transparency and extensibility. In doing so, we'll examine the PETSc and libCEED libraries, validate performance models, and discuss sustainable architecture for community development. We'll also check out Enzyme, an LLVM-based automatic differentiation tool that can be used with legacy code and multi-language projects to provide adjoint (gradient) capabilities.o provide adjoint (gradient) capabilities.)
Presenters-0618 + (Digital twins are increasingly important i … Digital twins are increasingly important in many domains, including for understanding and managing the natural environment. Digital twins of the natural environment are fueled by the unprecedented amounts of environmental data now available from a variety of sources from remote sensing to potentially dense deployment of earth-based sensors. Because of this, data science techniques inevitably have a crucial role to play in making sense of this complex, highly heterogeneous data. This webinar will reflect on the role of data science in digital twins of the natural environment, with particular attention on how resultant data models can work alongside the rich legacy of process models that exist in this domain. We will seek to unpick the complex two-way relationship between data and process understanding. By focusing on the interactions, we will end up with a template for digital twins that incorporates a rich, highly dynamic learning process with the potential to handle the complexities and emergent behaviors of this important area.emergent behaviors of this important area.)
Presenters-0511 + (Does permafrost impart topographic signatu … Does permafrost impart topographic signatures, and how does subsequent warming affect hillslope and channel form? Permafrost controls the depth to immobile soil, and tundra vegetation influences infiltration and erosion thresholds. I will use high-resolution maps of arctic landscapes to examine morphometric properties like hillslope length, curvature and drainage density as functions of climate and vegetation. I will then compare these data to existing models of climate-modulated sediment flux and channel incision in Landlab, exploring the effect of more nuanced representations of permafrost flux laws and hydrology. I will also compare modeled landscapes forced with Pleistocene-Holocene climate to mid-latitude landscape form.ne climate to mid-latitude landscape form.)
Presenters-0113 + (During a clinic session in the 2013 CSDMS … During a clinic session in the 2013 CSDMS annual meeting, the OpenFOAM®, an open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) platform, was first introduced by Dr. Xiaofeng Liu (now at Penn State University) for modeling general earth surface dynamics. OpenFOAM® provides various libraries, solvers and toolboxes for solving various fluid physics via finite volume method. The objective of this clinic is to further discuss its recent development and applications to coastal sediment transport. The clinic will start with an overview of a range of coastal applications using OpenFOAM®. We will then focus on a recently released solver, SedFOAM, for modeling sand transport by using an Eulerian two-phase flow methodology. Specifically, we will focus on applying the model to study wave-driven sheet flows and the occurrence of momentary bed failure. The code can be downloaded via CSDMS code repository and participants will receive a hands-on training of the coding style, available numerical schemes in OpenFOAM®, computational domain setup, input/output and model result analysis. Knowledge of C++, object-oriented programming, and parallel computing is not required but will be helpful.uting is not required but will be helpful.)
Presenters-0418 + (During the clinic we'll introduce the new … During the clinic we'll introduce the new Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling environment. We'll discuss the basic features and set up a simple 2D morphological model. The ongoing developments and the possibility to use BMI for runtime interaction will be presented as well.The user interface runs on Windows, so make sure that you have a Windows computer or virtual machine available during the meeting. The user interface will be provided precompiled; the computational kernels you'll have to compile yourself. We'll provide instructions on how to compile the FORTRAN/C kernels before the clinic.e the FORTRAN/C kernels before the clinic.)
Presenters-0425 + (Earth scientists face serious challenges w … Earth scientists face serious challenges when working with large datasets. Pangeo is a rapidly growing community initiative and open source software ecosystem for scalable geoscience using Python. Three of Pangeo’s core packages are 1) Jupyter, a web-based tool for interactive computing, 2) Xarray, a data-model and toolkit for working with N-dimensional labeled arrays, and 3) Dask, a flexible parallel computing library. When combined with distributed computing, these tools can help geoscientists perform interactive analysis on datasets up to petabytes in size. In this interactive tutorial we will demonstrate how to employ this platform using real science examples from hydrology, remote sensing, and oceanography. Participants will follow along using Jupyter notebooks to interact with Xarray and Dask running in Google Cloud Platform.and Dask running in Google Cloud Platform.)
Presenters-0594 + (Earth surface processes are modulated by f … Earth surface processes are modulated by fascinating interactions between climate, tectonics, and biota. These interactions are manifested over diverse temporal and spatial scales ranging from seconds to millions of years, and microns to thousands of kilometers, respectively. Investigations into Earth surface shaping by biota have gained growing attention over the last decades and are a research frontier. In this lecture, I present an integration of new observational and numerical modeling research on the influence of vegetation type and cover on the erosion of mountains. I do this through an investigation of millennial timescale catchment denudation rates measured along the extreme climate and ecologic gradient of the western margin of South America.nt of the western margin of South America.)
Presenters-0010 + (Earthquakes are the most frequent source o … Earthquakes are the most frequent source of classic tsunami waves. Other processes that generate tsunami waves include, landslides, volcanic eruption and meteorite impacts. Furthermore, atmospheric disturbances can also generate tsunami waves or at least tsunami-like waves, but we are just at the beginning of understanding their physics and frequency. Classic tsunami waves long waves with wavelength that are much longer than the water depth. For earthquake-generated tsunami waves that is true. However, landslides and meteorite impacts generate tsunami waves that are shorter which has a profound effect on the tsunami evolution, but no less dangerous. Fortunately, tsunamis do not occur frequently enough in any given region to make meaningful prediction of the future tsunami hazard based only on recorded history. The geologic record has to be interrogated. The inversion of meaningful and quantitative data from the geologic record is the main goal of my research. However, there are problems with the geologic record. The most important problem is that we often have trouble to identify tsunami deposits. Second, it is very often difficult to separate the tsunami record from the storm record in regions where storms and tsunamis are competing agents of coastal change. Other problems are concerned with he completeness of the deposits, but also the fact that sedimentary environment before the tsunami hit most likely was eroded is no longer part of the record makes inversion especially tricky. In my research, I assume that the tsunami deposit is identified, but perhaps not complete and what we know about the pre-event conditions is limited. My talk will cover how the geologic record is used to invert quantitative information about the causative process. We are going to look at grain sizes from sand to boulders and what we can learn from the transport of these very different grain sizes about tsunamis and their impacts along respective coastal areas. The models that are employed to invert flow characteristics from deposits are based on Monte-Carlo simulations to overcome the issue of not knowing the pre-tsunami conditions with great confidence. If time permits, we also see how sea-level change affects tsunami impact at the coast. sea-level change affects tsunami impact at the coast.)
Presenters-0625 + (Earth’s surface is the living skin of our … Earth’s surface is the living skin of our planet – it connects physical, chemical, & biological systems. Over geological time, this surface evolves with rivers fragmenting the landscape into environmentally diverse range of habitats. These rivers not only carve canyons & form valleys, but also serve as the main conveyors of sediment & nutrients from mountains to continental plains & oceans. Here we hypothesise that it is not just geodynamics or climate, but their interaction, which, by regulating topography and sedimentary flows, determines long-term evolution of biodiversity. As such, we propose that surface processes are a prime limiting factor of diversification of Life on Earth before any form of intrinsic biotic process.To test this hypothesis, we use reconstructions of ancient climates & plate tectonics to simulate the evolution of landscape & sedimentary history over the entire Phanerozoic era, a period of 540 million years. We then compare these results with reconstructions of marine & continental biodiversity over geological times. Our findings suggest that biodiversity is strongly influenced by landscape dynamics, which at any given moment determine the carrying capacity of continental & oceanic domains, i.e., the maximum number of different species they can support at any given time.In the oceans, diversity closely correlates with the sedimentary flow from the continents, providing the necessary nutrients for primary production. Episodes of mass extinctions in the oceans have occurred shortly after a significant decrease in sedimentary flow, suggesting that a nutrient deficit destabilizes biodiversity & makes it particularly vulnerable to catastrophic events.On the continents, it took the gradual coverage of the surface with sedimentary basins for plants to develop & diversify, thanks to the development of more elaborate root systems. This slow expansion of terrestrial flora was further stimulated during tectonic episodes.ow expansion of terrestrial flora was further stimulated during tectonic episodes.)
Presenters-0480 + (Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) enables … Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) enables quantitative study of ecosystem models by formulating system-wide organizational properties, such as how much nutrient cycling occurs within the system, or how essential a particular component is to the entire ecosystem function. EcoNet is a free online software for modeling, simulation and analysis of ecosystem network models, and compartmental flow-storage type models in general. It combines dynamic simulation with Ecological Network Analysis. EcoNet does not require an installation, and runs on any platform equipped with a standard browser. While it is designed to be easy to use, it does contain interesting features such as discrete and continuous stochastic solutions methods.d continuous stochastic solutions methods.)
Presenters-0461 + (Ecology is largely considered to have its … Ecology is largely considered to have its foundations in physics, and indeed physics frames many of the constraints on ecosystem dynamics. Physics has its limitations, however, especially when dealing with strongly heterogeneous systems and with the absence of entities. Networks are convenient tools for dealing with heterogeneity and have a long history in ecology, however most research in networks is dedicated to uncovering the mechanisms that give rise to network types. Causality in complex heterogeneous systems deals more with configurations of processes than it does with objects moving according to laws. Phenomenological observation of ecosystems networks reveals regularities that the laws of physics are unequipped to determine. The ecosystem is not a machine, but rather a transaction between contingent organization and entropic disorder.ingent organization and entropic disorder.)
Presenters-0011 + (Economic losses and casualties due to rive … Economic losses and casualties due to riverine flooding increased in past decades and are most likely to further increase due to global change. To plan effective mitigation and adaptation measures and since floods often affect large areas showing spatial correlation, several global flood models (GFMs) were developed. Yet, they are either based on hydrologic or on hydrodynamic model codes. This may lower the accuracy of inundation estimates as large-scale hydrologic models often lack advanced routing schemes, reducing timeliness of simulated discharge, while hydrodynamic models depend on observed discharge or synthesized flood waves, hampering the representation of intra-domain processes. To overcome this, GLOFRIM was developed. Currently, it allows for coupling one global hydrologic model, producing discharge and runoff estimates, with two hydrodynamics which perform the routing of surface water. By employing the Basic Model Interface (BMI) concept, both online and spatially explicit coupling of the models is supported. This way the coupled models remained unaffected, facilitating the separate development, storage, and updating of the models and their schematizations. Additionally, the framework is developed with easy accessibility and extensibility in mind, which allows other models to be added without extensive re-structuring. In this presentation, the main underlying concepts of GLOFRIM as well as its workflow will be outlined, and first results showing the benefit of model coupling will be discussed. Besides, current limitations and need for future improvements will be pointed out. Last, current developments in code development, applications, and integrations with other research fields will be presented and discussed.other research fields will be presented and discussed.)
Presenters-0547 + (Ecosystems are in transition globally with … Ecosystems are in transition globally with critical societal consequences. Global warming, growing climatic extremes, land degradation, human-introduced herbivores, and climate-related disturbances (e.g., wildfires) drive rapid changes in ecosystem productivity and structure, with complex feedbacks in watershed hydrology, geomorphology, and biogeochemistry. There is a need to develop models that can represent ecosystem changes by incorporating the role of individual plant patches. We developed ecohydrologic components in Landlab that can be coupled to create models to simulate local soil moisture dynamics and plant dynamics with spatially-explicit cellular automaton plant establishment, mortality, fires, and grazing. In this talk, I will present a model developed to explore the interplay between ecosystem state, change in climate, resultant grass connectivity, fire frequency, and topography. A transition from a cool-wet climate to a warm-dry climate leads to shrub expansion due to drought-induced loss of grass connectivity. Shrubs dominate the ecosystem if dry conditions persist longer. The transition back to a tree or grass-dominated ecosystem from a shrub-dominated ecosystem can only happen when climate shifts from dry to wet. The importance of the length of dry or wet spells on ecosystem structure is highlighted. Aspect plays a critical role in providing topographical refugia for trees during dry periods and influences the rate of ecosystem transitions during climate change.osystem transitions during climate change.)
Presenters-0453 + (Ecosystems present spatial patterns contro … Ecosystems present spatial patterns controlled by climate, topography, soils, plant interactions, and disturbances. Geomorphic transport processes mediated by the state of the ecosystem leave biotic imprints on erosion rates and topography. This talk will address the following questions at the watershed scale: What are emergent properties of biotic landscapes, and how do they form? How do biotic landscapes respond to perturbations in space and time? First, formation of patterns and ecologic rates of change to perturbations in semiarid ecosystems will be investigated using Landlab. Second, we will examine eco-geosphere interactions and outcomes using a landscape evolution model. The role of solar radiation on ecogeomorphic forms, and watershed ecogeomorphic response to climate change will be elaborated. Finally, reflecting on the findings of previous research, some future directions in numerical modeling for linking ecosphere and geosphere will be discussed.ecosphere and geosphere will be discussed.)
Presenters-0475 + (Environmental management decisions increas … Environmental management decisions increasingly rely on quantitative integrated ecological models to forecast potential outcomes of management actions. These models are becoming increasingly complex through the integration of processes from multiple disciplines (e.g., linking physical process, engineering and ecological models). These integrated modeling suites are viewed by many decision makers as unnecessarily complex black boxes, which can lead to mistrust, misinterpretation and/or misapplication of model results. Numerical models have historically been developed without decision makers and stakeholders involved in model development, which further complicates communication as diverse project teams have differing levels of understanding of models and their uses. For example, explaining to a group of non-modelers how hydrodynamic model output was aggregated at ecologically-relevant scales can be difficult to explain to someone who was not exposed to that modeling decision. The mistrust of models and associated outputs can lead to poor decision-making, increase the risk of ineffective decisions and can lead to litigation over decisions. Improved integrated ecological model development practices are needed to increase transparency, include stakeholders and decision makers throughout the entire modeling process from conceptualization through application. This clinic describes a suite of techniques, best practices, and tools for rapid developing applied integrated ecological models in conjunction with technical stakeholder audiences and agency practitioners. First, a workshop approach for applied ecosystem modeling problems is described that cultivates a foundational understanding of integrated ecological models through hands-on, interactive model development. In this workshop environment, interdisciplinary and interagency working groups co-develop models in real-time which demystifies technical issues and educates participants on the modeling process. Second, a Toolkit for interActive Modeling (TAM) is presented as a simple platform for rapidly developing index-based ecological models, which we have found useful for developing a strong modeling foundation for large, multidisciplinary teams involved in environmental decision making. Third, the EcoRest R package is described, which provides a library of functions for computing habitat suitability and decision support via cost-effectiveness and incremental cost analysis. Based on 10 workshops over the last 8 years, these techniques facilitated rapid, transparent development and application of integrated ecological models, informed non-technical stakeholders of the complexity facing decision-makers, created a sense of model ownership by participants, built trust among partners, and ultimately increased “buy-in” of eventual management decisions.“buy-in” of eventual management decisions.)
Presenters-0107 + (Established in 2005, GEO (http://www.earth … Established in 2005, GEO (http://www.earthobservations.org/) is a voluntary partnership of governments and organizations that envisions “a future wherein decisions and actions for the benefit of humankind are informed by coordinated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observations and information.” GEO Member governments include 96 nations and the European Commission, and 87 Participating Organizations comprised of international bodies with a mandate in Earth observations. Together, the GEO community is creating a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) that will link Earth observation resources world-wide across multiple Societal Benefit Areas - agriculture, biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water and weather - and make those resources available for better informed decision-making. Through the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI), GEOSS resources, including Earth observation data (satellite, airborne, in situ, models), information services, standards and best practices, can be searched, discovered and accessed by scientists, policy leaders, decision makers, and those who develop and provide information services across the entire spectrum of users.The presentation will cover the GCI overall architecture and some possible future developments.ure and some possible future developments.)
Presenters-0499 + (Exchanges of sediment between marshes and … Exchanges of sediment between marshes and estuaries affect coastal geomorphology, wetland stability and habitat, but can be difficult to predict due to the many processes that influence dynamics in these systems. This study uses a modeling approach to analyze how spatially variability in marsh-edge erosion, vegetation, and hydrodynamic conditions affect sediment fluxes between marshes and estuaries in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. Specifically, the three-dimensional Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) numerical model was used. Model results showed that marsh-estuarine sediment fluxes varied spatially due to changes in wave thrust, currents, and sediment availability.rust, currents, and sediment availability.)
Presenters-0646 + (Exploratory models that simulate landscape … Exploratory models that simulate landscape change incorporate only the most essential processes that are hypothesized to control a behavior of interest. These “rule-based” models have been used successfully to examine behaviors in natural landscapes over large spatial (many kms) and temporal scales (decades to millennia). In many geomorphic systems, the dynamics of developed landscapes differ significantly from natural landscapes. For example, humans can alter the physical landscape through the introduction of hard infrastructure and removal of vegetation. Humans can also modify the internal and external forces that naturally change landscapes, including flows of water, wind, and sediment as well as climatic factors. As with natural processes, in exploratory models human behavior must be parameterized. However, the level of detail to which human behavior can be reduced while still accurately reproducing feedbacks across the coupled human-natural landscape is a complex, user-based decision. In this clinic, we will work in small groups and through a Jupyter Notebook to parameterize a new human behavior within a modular coastal barrier evolution model (Barrier3D, within the CASCADE modeling framework). The clinic will incorporate discussions and prompts about how to broadly identify important model “ingredients” and reduce model complexity, and will therefore be generalizable to other geomorphic landscapes.eralizable to other geomorphic landscapes.)
Presenters-0629 + (Fill-Spill-Merge (FSM) is an algorithm tha … Fill-Spill-Merge (FSM) is an algorithm that distributes runoff on a landscape to fill or partially fill depressions. When a depression fills, excess water can overflow into neighbouring depressions or the ocean. In this clinic, we will use FSM to assess changes in a landscape’s hydrology when depressions in a DEM are partially or fully filled with water. We will discuss why it may be important to consider depressions more closely than just with removal. I will describe the design of the FSM algorithm, and then we will use FSM on a DEM to look at how landscape hydrology changes under different hydrologic conditions. This clinic may be helpful to those interested in topics such as landscape hydrology, landscape evolution, flow routing, hydrologic connectivity, and lake water storage.ogic connectivity, and lake water storage.)
Presenters-0569 + (Fire temporarily alters soil and vegetatio … Fire temporarily alters soil and vegetation properties, driving increases in runoff and erosion that can dramatically increase the likelihood of debris flows. In the immediate aftermath of fire, debris flows most often initiate when surface water runoff rapidly erodes sediment on steep slopes. Due to the complex interactions between runoff generation, sediment transport, and post-fire debris-flow initiation and growth, models that couple these processes can provide valuable insights into the ways in which topography, burn severity, and post-fire recovery influence debris-flow activity. Here, we describe such a model as well as attempts to parameterize temporal changes in model parameters throughout the post-fire recovery process. Simulations of watershed-scale response to individual rainstorms in several southern California burned areas suggest substantial reductions in debris-flow likelihood and volume within the first 1-2 years following fire. Results highlight the importance of considering local rainfall characteristics and sediment supply when using process-based numerical models to assess debris-flow potential. More generally, results provide a methodology for estimating the intensity and duration of rainfall associated with the initiation of runoff-generated debris flows as well as insights into the persistence of debris-flow hazards following fire.nce of debris-flow hazards following fire.)
Presenters-0509 + (Flood hazard in rivers can evolve from cha … Flood hazard in rivers can evolve from changes in the frequency and intensity of flood-flows (hydrologic effects) and in the channel capacity to carry flood-flows (morphologic effects). However, river morphology is complex and often neglected in flood planning. Here, we separate the impacts of morphology vs. hydrology on flood risk for 48 river gauges in Northwestern Washington State. We find that morphologic vs. hydrologic forcings are comparable but not regionally consistent. Prominent morphologic effects on flood-risk are forced by extreme natural events and anthropogenic disturbances. Based on morphologic changes, we identify five categories of river behavior relevant for flood-risk management.havior relevant for flood-risk management.)
Presenters-0004 + (Flood modelling at global scales represent … Flood modelling at global scales represents a revolution in hydraulic science and has the potential to transform decision-making and risk management in a wide variety of fields. Such modelling draws on a rich heritage of algorithm and data set development in hydraulic modelling over the last 20 years, and is now beginning to yield new insights into current and future flood risk. This paper reviews this progress and outlines recent efforts to develop a 30m resolution true hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous US. The model is built using an automated framework which uses US National Elevation Dataset, the HydroSHEDS river network, regionalised frequency analysis to determine extreme flow and rainfall boundary conditions and the USACE National Levee Dataset to characterize flood defences. Comparison against FEMA and USGS flood maps shows the continental model to have skill approaching that of bespoke models built with local data. The paper describes the development and testing of the model, and it use to estimate current and future flood risk in the US using high resolution population maps and development projections.pulation maps and development projections.)
Presenters-0017 + (Flooding is one of the costliest natural d … Flooding is one of the costliest natural disasters and recent events, including several hurricanes as well as flash floods, have been particularly devastating. In the US alone, the last few years have been record-breaking in terms of flood disasters and triggered many reactions in public opinions. Governments are now reviewing the available information to better mitigate the risks from flooding. Typically, in the US, flood hazard mapping is done by federal agencies (USACE, FEMA and USGS), with traditionally, little room and need for research model development in flood hazard applications. Now, with the advent of the National Water Model, the status quo of flood hazard prediction in the US may be changing; however, inundation extent and floodplain depths in the National Water Model are still under early-stage development. This Clinic provides a beginner introduction to the latest capabilities in large-scale 2-D modeling using the LISFLOOD-FP model developed by the University of Bristol with a nearly 20-year code history. This model has a very long history in research applications, while the algorithms behind the model made their way also into many existing industry model codes. The session will give participants insights into 2-D flood inundation modeling with LISFLOOD-FP and also a look at more sophisticated sub-grid channel implementations for large-scale application. More specifically, we will look at the data sets needed by the model and then run a simulation of the annual flooding on the Inner Niger Delta in Mali. The Clinic will also give participants the opportunity to look at some high-resolution LiDAR-based model results.ook at some high-resolution LiDAR-based model results.)