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Accurate projections of future coastal cha … Accurate projections of future coastal change require a tight integration of coastal geomorphological models with data. For long-term projections, beyond the year 2100 for example, one particular difficulty is that our typical validation timeseries are short (often <30 years) compared to our projection horizon. </br></br>In this talk I will discuss two model-data integration methods that we have used to circumvent this issue. The first method is to apply generic simple models to many different coastal systems, and do space-for-time substitution. For example, we test the effect of sea-level rise on wetland change by comparing wetland change between rapidly subsiding and rapidly uplifting coasts. The second method also employs simple models but tests them using long timeseries extracted from sediment core data. For example, we test and apply our barrier island models using paleogeographic reconstructions going back ~5000 years. In this case it is key to use simple models to not overdimensionalize the model fitting. </br></br>For both methods there is an added benefit: we learn something about coastal geomorphology along the way.ng about coastal geomorphology along the way. +
j.h.nienhuis@uu.nl +
CSDMS 2025: Exploring Earth's Surface with Models, Data & AI +
Utrecht University +
Nienhuis +
Invited oral presentation +
Two worlds on a single planet: long-term coastal geomorphological data versus models +
JP19ncHR0Ds +
Netherlands +
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11:16:32, 16 December 2024 +
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22:34:05, 11 June 2025 +
