2025 CSDMS meeting-036
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Investigation of the environmental impact of annual sea level rise variability on the deltaic landscape evolution in estuarine environments
Ahmed Khalifa,
(He/His),Tulane University New Orleans Louisiana, United States. akhalifa1@tulane.edu
Traditional deltaic landscape evolution models often simplify sea level rise (SLR) as a smooth curve to represent the impact of long-term increase in sea level. However, annual variability in SLR can significantly impact these dynamic ecosystems. This study employs a computationally efficient biophysical model to investigate the effects of varying SLR scenarios on Barataria Basin, a complex estuarine environment. Simulations were conducted using three smoothed SLR estimates (2m, 1.1m, and 0.6m by 2100) and four additional scenarios incorporating annual variability around each of the smoothed curves. Our findings suggest that Barataria Basin could experience substantial land loss, potentially ranging from 50,000 to 70,000 acres between 2030 and 2070 due to annual variability in SLR. These results underscore the critical need to consider SLR variability in coastal planning and management strategies to mitigate the impacts of rising sea levels.
