HPCCprojects:Numerical Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Alaska using a High Spatial Resolution Dataset: Difference between revisions
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natural hazards and carbon budgets. Recent publications report a | natural hazards and carbon budgets. Recent publications report a | ||
gradual increase of mean annual permafrost temperatures in Alaska | gradual increase of mean annual permafrost temperatures in Alaska | ||
(Romaniovsky et al, 2010 and Smith et al, 2010). Thawing of | (Romaniovsky et al., 2010 and Smith et al., 2010). Thawing of | ||
permafrost might cause the land to sink and collapse, damaging | permafrost might cause the land to sink and collapse, damaging | ||
forests, homes, and infrastructure. Economists estimate that thawing | forests, homes, and infrastructure. Economists estimate that thawing | ||
| Line 27: | Line 27: | ||
The nature of permafrost existence is complex enough and cannot be | The nature of permafrost existence is complex enough and cannot be | ||
addressed based only on climatic data (Shur and Jorgenson, 2007). In | addressed based only on climatic data (Shur and Jorgenson, 2007). In | ||
this project we employed more sophisticated approach which includes all important factors affecting permafrost thermal regime such as snow, organic layer, soil physical properties and subsurface water content. The original version of the model was developed by G. Tipenko and V. Romanovsky (2004). Later it was extended to the spatial case and first time applied for the entire Alaskan permafrost domain with 0.5° spatial resolution by Marchenko et al, (2008). <br /> | this project we employed more sophisticated approach which includes all important factors affecting permafrost thermal regime such as snow, organic layer, soil physical properties and subsurface water content. We employ GIPL2-MPI transient heat flow model for the entire Alaska permafrost domain. The original version of the model was developed by G. Tipenko and V. Romanovsky (2004). Later it was extended to the spatial case and first time applied for the entire Alaskan permafrost domain with 0.5° spatial resolution by Marchenko et al., (2008). <br /> | ||
To determine the social-economic impact of permafrost thaw on ecosystem and infrastructure higher spatial resolution is required. In order to employ the model to simulate the ground temperatures in higher spatial resolution we need make it parallel by distributing the amount of computational load between processors. The GIPL2-MPI is a parallel version of the GIPL2 spatial model used by Marchenko et al, 2008. | To determine the social-economic impact of permafrost thaw on ecosystem and infrastructure higher spatial resolution is required. In order to employ the model to simulate the ground temperatures in higher spatial resolution we need make it parallel by distributing the amount of computational load between processors. The GIPL2-MPI is a parallel version of the GIPL2 spatial model used by Marchenko et al., 2008. | ||
==Objectives== | ==Objectives== | ||
* How well is the simulated map represent the current thermal state of permafrost? (model calibration and validation) | * How well is the simulated map represent the current thermal state of permafrost? (model calibration and validation) | ||
| Line 55: | Line 55: | ||
==Users== | ==Users== | ||
* Sergei Marchenko | |||
* | * Elchin Jafarov | ||
==Funding== | ==Funding== | ||
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[http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0632400 0632400]; | [http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0632400 0632400]; | ||
[http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0856864 0856864]) and the State of | [http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0856864 0856864]) and the State of | ||
Alaska | Alaska. | ||
==Publications and presentations== | ==Publications and presentations== | ||
Larsen, P. H., S. Goldsmith, O. Smith, M. L. Wilson, K. Strzepek, P. Chinowsky.and B. Saylor, 2008: Estimating future costs for Alaska public infrastructure at risk from climate change. Global Environmental Change, 18(3): 442-457. | |||
Marchenko, S., Romanovsky, V., Tipenko, G., 2008. Numerical modeling of spatial permafrost dynamics in Alaska, in: In Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Permafrost, Willey, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska, Fairbanks. pp. 190–204. | |||
Romanovsky, V.E., Smith, S.L., Christiansen, H.H., 2010. Permafrost thermal state in the polar northern hemisphere during the international polar year 2007–2009: a synthesis. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 21, 106–116. | |||
Shur YL, Jorgenson MT. 2007. Patterns of permafrost | |||
formation and degradation in relation to climate and | |||
ecosystems. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 18: | |||
7–19. doi: 10.1002/ppp.582 | |||
Smith, S., Romanovsky, V., Lewkowicz, A., Burn, C., Allard, M., Clow, G., Yoshikawa, K., Throop, J., 2010. Thermal state of permafrost in North America: a contribution to the international polar year. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C12A-02 21, 117–135. | |||
Tipenko, G., Marchenko, S., Romanovsky, V., Groshev, V., Sazonova, T., 2004. Spatially distributed model of permafrost dynamics in alaska. EOS, Transactions of the AGU, 85(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C12A-02 . | |||
==Links== | ==Links== | ||
[http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/about The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory] | |||
[[Category:Research project]] | |||
Revision as of 15:26, 3 December 2010
Numerical Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Alaska using a High Spatial Resolution Dataset
Project description
Permafrost is a lithospheric material where temperatures have remained at or below 0°C for a period of at least two consecutive years.
Permafrost is one of the main components of the cryosphere in northern
regions, which influences hydrological processes, energy exchanges,
natural hazards and carbon budgets. Recent publications report a
gradual increase of mean annual permafrost temperatures in Alaska
(Romaniovsky et al., 2010 and Smith et al., 2010). Thawing of
permafrost might cause the land to sink and collapse, damaging
forests, homes, and infrastructure. Economists estimate that thawing
permafrost will add billions of dollars in repair costs to public
infrastructure (Larsen et al., 2008).
The nature of permafrost existence is complex enough and cannot be
addressed based only on climatic data (Shur and Jorgenson, 2007). In
this project we employed more sophisticated approach which includes all important factors affecting permafrost thermal regime such as snow, organic layer, soil physical properties and subsurface water content. We employ GIPL2-MPI transient heat flow model for the entire Alaska permafrost domain. The original version of the model was developed by G. Tipenko and V. Romanovsky (2004). Later it was extended to the spatial case and first time applied for the entire Alaskan permafrost domain with 0.5° spatial resolution by Marchenko et al., (2008).
To determine the social-economic impact of permafrost thaw on ecosystem and infrastructure higher spatial resolution is required. In order to employ the model to simulate the ground temperatures in higher spatial resolution we need make it parallel by distributing the amount of computational load between processors. The GIPL2-MPI is a parallel version of the GIPL2 spatial model used by Marchenko et al., 2008.
Objectives
- How well is the simulated map represent the current thermal state of permafrost? (model calibration and validation)
- The importance of microclimate and other environmental controls affecting permafrost thermal regime.
- What might be the possible permafrost thermal state by the end of 21st century?
Time-line
| Start date: | 01/01/2008 |
| End date: | 12/31/2014 |
Models in use
| GIPL | numerical transient heat flow model |
Results
List the results of your project
Users
- Sergei Marchenko
- Elchin Jafarov
Funding
Financial support provided by the National Science Foundation ( projects 0520578; 0632400; 0856864) and the State of Alaska.
Publications and presentations
Larsen, P. H., S. Goldsmith, O. Smith, M. L. Wilson, K. Strzepek, P. Chinowsky.and B. Saylor, 2008: Estimating future costs for Alaska public infrastructure at risk from climate change. Global Environmental Change, 18(3): 442-457.
Marchenko, S., Romanovsky, V., Tipenko, G., 2008. Numerical modeling of spatial permafrost dynamics in Alaska, in: In Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Permafrost, Willey, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska, Fairbanks. pp. 190–204.
Romanovsky, V.E., Smith, S.L., Christiansen, H.H., 2010. Permafrost thermal state in the polar northern hemisphere during the international polar year 2007–2009: a synthesis. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 21, 106–116.
Shur YL, Jorgenson MT. 2007. Patterns of permafrost formation and degradation in relation to climate and ecosystems. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 18: 7–19. doi: 10.1002/ppp.582
Smith, S., Romanovsky, V., Lewkowicz, A., Burn, C., Allard, M., Clow, G., Yoshikawa, K., Throop, J., 2010. Thermal state of permafrost in North America: a contribution to the international polar year. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C12A-02 21, 117–135.
Tipenko, G., Marchenko, S., Romanovsky, V., Groshev, V., Sazonova, T., 2004. Spatially distributed model of permafrost dynamics in alaska. EOS, Transactions of the AGU, 85(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C12A-02 .
