2025 CSDMS meeting-130

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Variability in Winds During River Flood and Quiescent Periods in Baltimore, MD: Implications for Modeling Estuarine Residence Time

Carisa De Santos, (she/her),University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado, United States. carisa.desantos@colorado.edu

Julia Moriarty, University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado, United States. julia.moriarty@colorado.edu

Tina Geller, University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado, United States. tina.geller@colorado.edu

Coastal urban estuaries are often impacted by water quality concerns such as bacterial contamination and harmful algal blooms that can negatively impact both human health and local industries. Historically, these impacts have been exacerbated by floods that increase the riverine discharge and alter wind patterns. Due to technical and safety constraints, however, in-situ observations during extreme events are difficult and their exact effect on water quality is typically challenging to determine. As part of a larger effort to understand how water quality changes during and following floods in estuaries around Baltimore, this study analyzed the variability in winds and river discharge. Specifically, this study utilized wind data from the NOAA station at the Frances Scott Key Bridge and river discharge data from multiple USGS river gauges from 2014-2024. Conditions during and following floods versus quiescent periods were compared. Preliminary results included the identification of 52 flooding events, defined as days when the daily discharge was higher than three standard deviations above the mean total daily discharge. During these events, the wind patterns were distinctly more northeasterly compared to low-discharge conditions, when northwesterly winds were more prevalent. Ongoing work includes investigating how variability in winds impacts circulation and residence time using a 3-D numerical hydrodynamic model.