2024 CSDMS meeting-108


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Assessing Coastal Defense Vulnerabilities: Rising Sea Levels and DoD Site Risks

Dipankar Dwivedi, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California, United States. ddwivedi@lbl.gov
Bex Abylkhani, Stanford Palo Alto California, United States. bexultan@stanford.edu
Su Jiang, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California, United States. sujiang@lbl.gov
Chuyang Liu, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley California, United States. CLiu6@lbl.gov
Daniel Tartakovsky, Stanford Palo Alto California, United States. tartakovsky@stanford.edu
Steve Yabusaki, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland Washington, United States. yabusaki@pnnl.gov

Coastal areas globally face increasing threats from intensified weather events and rising sea levels, leading to challenges such as fluctuations in groundwater levels and salinity intrusions. This presents a significant concern for the Department of Defense (DoD), which manages over 1700 coastal sites worldwide, with several facing heightened vulnerability to these environmental changes. We aim to evaluate the susceptibility of DoD coastal sites to sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion, utilizing the Defense Regional Sea Level (DRSL) database that includes projections for five global sea-level rise scenarios and extreme water events. To achieve this, we have adopted a two-pronged strategy. First, we conduct an in-depth vulnerability analysis considering the current situation, sea-level trends, and topographic elevation. The vulnerability analysis aids in selecting sites for detailed further investigation. Subsequently, we formulate Reduced Order Models (ROMs), including Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and the Unified Fourier Neural Operator (U-FNO) for sites with a range of vulnerabilities. DMD and U-FNO are selected for their efficiency, enabling faster execution and thousands of runs to assess site vulnerability under future climate scenarios through the century's end. Trained on site-specific mechanistic models, both DMD and U-FNO accurately simulate current groundwater and salinity conditions, providing reliable forecasts of future impacts on DoD sites, utilizing data from the DRSL database and climate model projections. This approach clarifies the immediate risks and facilitates the transfer of essential knowledge throughout DoD's extensive network, fostering a deep understanding of global coastal vulnerabilities. Ultimately, this informs the development of targeted, effective mitigation strategies, safeguarding critical defense infrastructure against the impacts of climate change.