2024 CSDMS meeting-106
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Time of Emergence Analysis for Extreme Temperature-Related Mortality
Daniel Blanco,
(They/Them),Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey, United States. dtb96@scarletmail.rutgers.edu
Tamma Carleton, UC Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California, United States. tcarleton@ucsb.edu
Kelly McCusker, Rhodium Group New York New York, United States. kmccusker@rhg.com
Robert Fofrich, UCLA LOS ANGELES California, United States. robert.fofrich@rutgers.edu
Brewster Malevich, Rhodium Group New York New York, United States. bmalevich@rhg.co
Praveen Kumar, Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey, United States. praveen.kumar@rutgers.edu
Alex Reedy, Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey, United States. ar2208@eps.rutgers.edu
Robert Kopp, Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey, United States. robert.kopp@rutgers.edu
, , United States.
The interplay between economic development and climate change exerts countervailing effects on human wellbeing, particularly concerning temperature-related mortality. While economic growth may enhance adaptive capacity and healthcare access, climate change intensifies extreme heat events, posing significant health risks. Carleton et al. (2022) and Barrage (2024) have quantified the effects of climate change and income growth on temperature-related mortality, providing insights into future health trajectories. To discern when climate change impacts on mortality become distinguishable from natural variability, this study introduces the concept of Time of Emergence (ToE). By identifying the ToE, this research – one of the first to apply ToE analysis to climate impacts rather than climate hazards – assesses the moment when climate-induced mortality becomes detectable beyond natural fluctuations, offering insights into the timing and magnitude of extreme-temperature impacts. The findings unveil that in warm regions, climate change may impede or nullify the reductions in temperature-related mortality typically driven by development, underscoring the urgency for targeted adaptation measures and policy interventions to mitigate health risks associated with climate change.
