2025 CSDMS meeting-107
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The Effect of Climate and Management Strategies on Barrier Island Evolution: Insights from a Case Study of Hatteras Island
Hannah Henry,
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill North Carolina, United States. hahenry@unc.edu
Barrier islands, which comprise ~10% of shorelines worldwide, are ecologically and economically important coastal systems. They also provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, acting as critical buffers that protect the mainland from storms, erosion, and other natural hazards. However, the dynamic nature of barrier island geomorphology and the processes that sustain them create complex coastal management challenges, particularly in response to more intense and frequent storms and rising sea levels. These challenges contribute to infrastructure vulnerability, habitat loss, and increasing maintenance costs for management actions like beach nourishment, negatively impacting coastal communities. Thus, understanding the interplay between natural processes and management decisions is essential for predicting the future of developed coastlines. Here, we apply the CoAStal Community-lAnDscape Evolution (CASCADE) model, a coupled landscape and human dynamics modeling framework, tailoring it to simulate geomorphic change on Hatteras Island, North Carolina — a barrier island in the Outer Banks experiencing severe erosion that threatens both properties and transportation routes along the NC-12 highway. Following a hindcast calibration and test, we assess the likely range of future island behavior under a range of different climate and management scenarios. Our approach integrates geomorphic and human decision-making processes and incorporates a variety of data such as LiDAR-derived elevations, historic shoreline change rates and storm observations, sea-level rise projections, and management scenarios currently under consideration. This study demonstrates the utility of CASCADE as a tool for understanding coupled human-natural systems and provides a framework for assessing long-term coastal resilience and adaptation strategies under changing environmental conditions in other similar settings.
