2020 CSDMS meeting-035
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Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphic changes on Fire Island, New York: implications for people and plovers
Sara Zeigler, U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Florida, United States. szeigler@usgs.gov
Erika Lentz, U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Massachusetts, United States. elentz@usgs.gov
Benjamin Gutierrez, U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Massachusetts, United States. bgutierrez@usgs.gov
Barrier islands and other coastal landforms are highly dynamic systems, changing in response a spectrum of disturbances from constant, multi-decadal press disturbances like sea-level rise (SLR) to short, sharp pulse perturbations like storms. As a result, multiple stable ecomorphological states exist on barrier islands. In this study, we used a probabilistic Bayesian network approach to investigate the likelihood of shifts in alternative equilibrium states on Fire Island, New York under several sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Specifically, we highlight areas that are most likely (i) to become inundated, (ii) to shift from one non-inundated state (or landcover type) to another (e.g., a forest becomes beach), or (iii) to remain in the current landcover state.
