HPCCprojects:Numerical Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Alaska using a High Spatial Resolution Dataset

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Numerical Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Alaska using a High Spatial Resolution Dataset

Project description

Permafrost is a lithospheric material where temperatures have remained at or below 00C for a period of at least two consecutive years.
Permafrost is one of the main components of the cryosphere in northern regions, which influences hydrological processes, energy exchanges, natural hazards and carbon budgets. Recent publications report a gradual increase of mean annual permafrost temperatures in Alaska (Romaniovsky et al, 2010 and Smith et al, 2010). Thawing of permafrost might cause the land to sink and collapse, damaging forests, homes, and infrastructure. Economists estimate that thawing permafrost will add billions of dollars in repair costs to public infrastructure (Larsen et al., 2008).

The nature of permafrost existence is complex enough and cannot be addressed based only on climatic data (Shur and Jorgenson, 2007). In this project we employed more sophisticated approach which includes all important factors affecting permafrost thermal regime such as snow, organic layer, soil physical properties and subsurface water content. The original version of the model was developed by G. Tipenko and V. Romanovsky (2004). Later it was extended to the spatial case and first time applied for the entire Alaskan permafrost domain with 0.50 spatial resolution by Marchenko et al, (2008).
To determine the social-economic impart of permafrost thaw on ecosystem and infrastructure higher spatial resolution is required. In order to employ the model to simulate the ground temperatures in higher spatial resolution we need make it parallel by distributing the amount of computational load between processors. The GIPL2-MPI is a parallel version of the GIPL2 spatial model used by Marchenko et al, 2008.

Objectives

  • Bulleted list item
  • How well the simulated map represent the present state of permafrost (model calibration and validation)
  • What might be the possible future permafrost thermal state?
  • The importance of microclimate and other environmental controls affecting permafrost

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