CSDMS 2022: Environmental Extremes and Earthscape Evolution

Modeling big unknowns in climate adaptation research – an example from mobility in coastal Bangladesh

Andrew Bell

Boston University, United States

I will discuss an application of the Migration, Intensification, and Diversification as Adaptive Strategies (MIDAS) agent-based modeling framework to modeling labor migration across Bangladesh under the stressor of sea-level rise (SLR). With this example, I hope to highlight some hard-to-resolve challenges in representing adaptive decision-making under as-yet unexperienced stressors in models. Drawing together what is more and what is less known in projections for future adaptation, I will discuss strategies for ‘responsible’ presentation and dissemination of model findings.

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Of interest for:
  • Coastal Working Group
  • Human Dimensions Focus Research Group
  • Coastal Vulnerability Initiative