MeetingOfInterest:Meeting-162
From CSDMS
Short Course on Tools for Model Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis
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This course introduces professionals in Groundwater and other related environmental fields to model calibration and predictive uncertainty analysis. Calibration is presented via several open-source model-independent inversion codes: OSTRICH, PEST/PEST++, and UCODE_2014. Basic concepts covered include:
- Analyze data to be used for model development, considering data accuracy and the ability of the model to produce comparable values.
- Based on knowledge of the system, decide how to define a set of calibration parameters.
- Determine the “optimal” set of parameter values that provide a best fit to observations.
- Calculate predictions and obtain measures of prediction uncertainty.
- Evaluate post-calibration diagnostics and statistics to learn more about the model structure and prioritize additional data collection activity.
At every step we will ask “Does this make sense”? Models are artificial constructs that sometimes are useful in understanding real world systems. Diligent analysis is critical to useful models.