CSDMS 2016 annual meeting poster SamapriyaRoy
A Composite Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas in Deltaic Regions: An Application in the Amazon Delta
Abstract:
Deltas are complex socio-ecological systems subject to a wide range of human pressures and hazards, where population density is many-folds that of other regions. Urban development patterns, urban growth, river damming & sediment control coupled with climate change are increasing flood risks and the degree of vulnerability in many deltas of the world. The need for integrated vulnerability assessments that capture both socio-economic and geophysical elements in deltas is emergent. This study presents a composite index for the vulnerability assessment of the urban Amazon Delta (AD) based in three dimensions of vulnerability: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. The vulnerability index was developed using the Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP), which helps to gage level of interdependence and the role of different dimensions of vulnerability. The index combines data from public databases at the most disaggregated level of analysis of census data (n = 2938 census sectors) and uses a methodology based on data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to assess and characterize sectors based on their flood risks. Results indicate that over 60% of the urban sectors within the AD present high degree of vulnerability, reaching a population of over one million inhabitants. This degree of urban vulnerability defines and reiterates the impacts of future climate changes across society and as it extends beyond the urban areas of the AD. The methodology proposed in this study contributes to a multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability and it can be applied to other urban areas, allowing for cross-site comparison of vulnerabilities across urban spaces within deltaic systems. Depending on particular case study of an urban area, a more context specific sub set of model indicators can be selected to assess vulnerability. Some indicators can be adapted to individual urban systems thereby providing a useful tool to assess vulnerability in a particular case study while developing a broader model. Future work will involve additional emphasis on time dependent land cover changes and their effects on urban vulnerability based on compositional and configurational changes to the landscape.
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