2024 CSDMS meeting-086


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Analysis of the geographic variations of storm tide joint probability exceedance curves in the Northeast United States

Diana Apoznanski, (she/her),Rutgers University New Brunswick New Jersey, United States. diana.apoznanski@rutgers.edu

Coastal flooding is an increasingly prominent hazard in the northeast United States, causing both property damage and disruption of daily life. Tide gauge records provide historical water level data and are used to estimate current return periods of storm tides (tide level plus storm surge) from both hurricanes and nor’easters. We calculate the interannual joint probability exceedance curves for select tide gauges in the Philadelphia, New Jersey, and New York City megaregion using the quasi‐nonstationary skew surge joint probability method (qn‐SSJPM) from Baranes et al. (2020). Analysis of the probability of storm tides for hurricane versus nor’easter seasons will be discussed, including geographic variations of the storm tide exceedance curves. Results from this study can be compared to storm climatology and used by social scientists and city planners to assess risk associated with the flood hazard in the area. By understanding the ways that probability of storm tide in summer and winter may change in the future, communities can better plan and prepare for future hazards.