2023 CSDMS meeting-035

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MODELING LANDSCAPE NATURALNESS SCENARIOS FOR THE JURÉIA-ITATINS MOSAIC OF PROTECTED AREAS, STATE OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

Andres Caseiro Guilhem, Federal University of ABC Santo André , Brazil. andres.acg@gmail.com

Angela Terumi Fushita, Federal University of ABC Santo André , Brazil. angela.fushita@ufabc.edu.br

Richard Fonseca Francisco, Federal University of ABC Santo André , Brazil. richard.fonseca@ufabc.edu.br

Due to its biodiversity, ecosystem services offered and deforestation experienced since the 16th century, there are several protected areas in Atlantic Forest, such as the Juréia-Itatins Mosaic of Protected Areas (MUCJI), state of São Paulo, Brazil. Illegal deforestation in the MUCJI and surroundings have been increasing, caused by urban and agricultural expansion, reducing Atlantic Forest naturalness. This work aimed to simulate scenarios of landscape naturalness of MUCJI and neighboring municipalities for 2050 year, considering the periods 1985-2002 and 2002-2019, which correspond, respectively, to the scenarios before and after the creation of the MUCJI and National System of Protected Areas (SNUC). The landscape naturalness was evaluated by generating Distance to Nature index (D2N) maps for years 1985, 2002 and 2019, which was used as input data in simulation. The forecasting of both scenarios was conducted using cellular automata, weights of evidence and Markov chain, in Dinamica EGO environmental modeling platform. Both forecasted projections suggested that there would be a slight decrease in landscape naturalness. However, the scenario without the MUCJI implementation would reach 165.15 ha of non-natural ecotope in the study area, while the scenario with MUCJI would reach 112.77 ha. The SNUC and the creation of the MUCJI would have been contributed to maintain the naturalness of the study area, reducing losses in landscape naturalness. However, municipal planning and the MUCJI management plans should consider urban and agricultural expansion and access roads as important drivers of loss of landscape naturalness, triggering deforestation and biodiversity damages. Keywords: Atlantic Forest; Protected Areas; Modeling; Landscape Naturalness; Distance to Nature Index.