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- 2023 CSDMS meeting-026 + (Models of coastal barrier ecomorphodynamic … Models of coastal barrier ecomorphodynamic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve, which can inform decision-making and hazard mitigation. Present ecomorphodynamic models of barrier systems, however, tend to operate over spatiotemporal scales incongruous with effective management practices (i.e., too fine-scale/event-based or too coarse/long-term). In contrast, we are developing a new model capable of simulating ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over several kilometers and decades with a 1-by-1 m planform grid and weekly time step. The model couples aeolian dune growth and vegetation dynamics (DUBEVEG), storm erosion of the beach and foredunes (CDM/SBEACH), storm overwash (Barrier3D), and shoreline/shoreface adjustment (LTA14). We parameterize the model with elevation and vegetation data from North Core Banks, NC, focusing on changes caused by Hurricane Florence (2018). Calibrating free parameters using a genetic algorithm, we find good to excellent agreement with observed and simulated elevation change for representative, small (<1 km alongshore) barrier segments. Future work will include testing the model with multidecadal hindcasts of ecomorphodynamic barrier change; running suites of simulations will allow us to better capture and quantify the probabilistic nature of the dynamic response of barriers to the forces driving coastal evolution.iers to the forces driving coastal evolution.)
