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- 2019 CSDMS meeting-016 + (Deltaic, estuarine, and barrier coasts are … Deltaic, estuarine, and barrier coasts are experiencing unprecedentedly fast rates of morphological changes, which constitute a threat to people, infrastructures, and economies. Predicting these changes in the future could help to develop cost-efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here I present recent progresses in simulating large scale and long term coastal evolution using a new morphodynamic-oriented model. Through opportune simplifications the model simulates tides, surges (hurricanes), wind waves, swells, sand/mud/organic sediment, stratigraphy, and vegetation in a numerically-efficient way. The model reproduces the self-organization of barrier islands and the formation of marshes in the backbarrier/estuarine region. The model emphasizes how mud supply is a major driver for the long-term retreat of marshes. The model also simulates how riverine inputs into backbarrier basins – for example through man-made river diversions – can reduce both marsh edge erosion and barrier island retreat.h edge erosion and barrier island retreat.)
