Presenters-0558
From CSDMS
CSDMS 2022 Webinars
Multi-Model Comparison of Computed Debris Flow Runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California Post-Wildfire Event
Abstract
Changes in soil properties after fire mean rain can more easily erode the surface and initiate debris flows—mixtures of water, soil, and rock that rapidly move from steep source areas to downstream regions. The combination of frequent fire, steep landscapes, dense population, and intense rain makes southern California prone to debris flows. The scientific community has established methods linking debris flow likelihood and volume to rainfall intensity and burned area characteristics. We presently lack a basis for understanding how flow volume, flow material properties, representation of flow physics, and site topography all combine to produce an inundation hazard. We begin to address this by using observations from the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California, debris flow event to test three candidate models for debris flow inundation. We found that all models can simulate the event and that the largest source of uncertainty in inundated area is the flow volume. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JF006245
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