View source for HPCCprojects:Numerical Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics in Alaska using a High Spatial Resolution Dataset

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==Project description==
Permafrost is a lithospheric material where temperatures have remained at or below 0°C for a period of at least two consecutive years.<br />
Permafrost is one of the main components of the cryosphere in northern
regions, which influences hydrological processes, energy exchanges,
natural hazards and carbon budgets. Recent publications report a
gradual increase of mean annual permafrost temperatures in Alaska
(Romaniovsky et al, 2010 and Smith et al, 2010). Thawing of
permafrost might cause the land to sink and collapse, damaging
forests, homes, and infrastructure. Economists estimate that thawing
permafrost will add billions of dollars in repair costs to public
infrastructure (Larsen et al., 2008).

The nature of permafrost existence is complex enough and cannot be
addressed based only on climatic data (Shur and Jorgenson, 2007). In
this project we employed more sophisticated approach which includes all important factors affecting permafrost thermal regime such as snow, organic layer, soil physical properties and subsurface water content. The original version of the model was developed by G. Tipenko and V. Romanovsky (2004). Later it was extended to the spatial case and first time applied for the entire Alaskan permafrost domain with 0.5° spatial resolution by Marchenko et al, (2008). <br />
To determine the social-economic impact of permafrost thaw on ecosystem and infrastructure higher spatial resolution is required. In order to employ the model to simulate the ground temperatures in higher spatial resolution we need make it parallel by distributing the amount of computational load  between processors. The GIPL2-MPI is a parallel version of the GIPL2 spatial model used by Marchenko et al, 2008.
==Objectives==
* How well is the simulated map represent the current thermal state of permafrost? (model calibration and validation)

* The importance of microclimate and other environmental controls affecting permafrost thermal regime.

* What might be the possible permafrost thermal state by the end of 21st century?

==Time-line==
{|
|Start date:
|01/01/2008
|-
|End date:
|12/31/2014
|}

==Models in use==
{|
| [[Model:GIPL|GIPL]]
| numerical transient heat flow model
|}

==Results==
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==Users==
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==Funding==
Financial support provided by the National Science Foundation ( projects [http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0520578 0520578];
[http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0632400 0632400];
[http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=0856864 0856864]) and the State of
Alaska

==Publications and presentations==
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==Links==
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