Property:CSDMS meeting abstract

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A barrier aware Riemann solver is developed for the shallow water equations in the presence of the sub-grid-scale barriers using an explicit finite volume scheme. Our algorithm guarantees that the barrier-containing cell can be split into two effective cells that are maintained outside of the reset of the grid structure. To avoid time-steps constrained by the size of small cut cells, we redistribute the fluxes computed on those cells engaging a modified h-box method. The solver ensures that water does not cross the barrier when it is not supposed to, maintain large time-steps relative to the cells being cut through and retain the desirable properties. Also, the wet-dry interface, the boundary between cells that are wet (or flooded) and dry are well handled so that quantities going to zero and conservation are carefully integrated into the method. The work is built off of the GeoClaw package so inherits various extensions to tsunami and storm surge simulations.  +
A critical part of predicting and representing coastal responses during large storms is to represent the areas of compound flooding where both oceanic factors (tides and surge), and hydrologic factors (i.e., rainfall-runoff processes), as well as their interactions impact water levels and flow velocities. During extreme events, these compound flood waters can remobilize thick layers of sediment, exposing material that had been buried for many years. One such event was Hurricane Harvey which made a landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast (US) on August 26, 2017. Within Galveston Bay, compound flooding occurred and persisted for weeks as the result of the interaction between the storm surges created as storm approached the coast, and a subsequent long-lasting flood pulse induced by the torrential rainfall associated with the hurricane. The flooding mobilized thick layers of sediment, including contaminated sediment from the Buffalo Bayou shipping channel. Sediment core data taken after the storm showed that these contaminants were transported several 10s of km. To predict the response of this type of event requires numerical models that can account for the rainfall-runoff processes, sediment erosion and transport, and oceanographic processes including storm surges, tides and wind-driven currents. These types of coupled models are currently being developed and tested as part of the NOAA funded Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT). The eventual goal of our project is to develop the capability to represent compound flooding and the associated particulate and contaminant fluxes across the river – to ocean continuum. Specifically, we plan to link a hydrological model (WRF-Hydro) to a Galveston Bay hydrodynamic model (ROMS) and apply it to large compound flooding events such as Hurricane Harvey. A higher resolution model capable of representing the Buffalo Bayou shipping channel will then be nested within the Galveston Bay model and used to reproduce sediment erosion and contaminant exposure patterns that were observed in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. In this poster we present preliminary model development that links the high – resolution (~20m) hydrodynamic model of Buffalo Bayou with the lower – resolution (~100 m) hydrodynamic model of Galveston Bay. The 20-m model grid resolves the relatively deep shipping channels and is being used in initial model runs to represent typical conditions in the upper Galveston Bay and Buffalo Bayou shipping channel.  
A dynamic framework coupling social and ecological sub-systems while aligning management, policy, governance, science, legal and decision-making elements under an overarching goal will be presented and described. A nested set of conceptual models is used to represent and analyze the general internal organization and functioning of a federal agency. External connectivities are also addressed while the conceptual model is able to generate testable hypotheses. The selection of managing for resilience as the main goal of the framework as well as their underpinning elements will be illustrated and explained. The overall functioning of the proposed resilience framework seeks to mimic and anticipate environmental change and is aligned with commonly used elements of resilience-thinking. Dynamic management frameworks addressing socio-ecological dynamics can facilitate the efficient and effective utilization of resources, reduce uncertainty for decision and policy makers, and lead to more defensible decisions on resources.  +
A goal of the geomorphology community is to translate our understanding of past and present processes to predict landscape change in the future. Here we present our knowledge about relict permafrost landscapes across central Appalachia, and we propose a framework through which the geologic record and landscape models may be used to predict change in modern permafrost settings. The onset of Quaternary glacial cycles profoundly influenced the pace and pattern of erosion in mid-latitude settings through the development and subsequent degradation of perennially-frozen soils. Lidar-based mapping documents extensive periglacial alteration of the central Appalachian landscape, including solifluction lobes and other mass-wasting features. These features appear aspect-modulated, implying microclimate control. Geomorphic mapping, shallow geophysical imaging and cosmogenic nuclide dating reveal that periglacial erosion sets regolith patterns, subsurface architecture and erosion rates for multiple glacial cycles. Moreover, a combination of slow erosion rates and structural traps means headwater valleys and basins preserve direct records of upland erosional response to climate change, and planned work to core modern peat bogs may provide paleoclimate and paleoecological markers like pollen and leaf waxes in addition to quartz-rich debris for cosmogenic dating. Geologic data can be supplemented by permafrost hydrology models for an improved understanding of both the microclimate and long-term climate controls on periglacial hillslope processes. Informative models pair realistic active layer flow paths, accounting for both infiltration and permafrost thaw, with effective stress calculations to develop more accurate failure depth estimates. Such process-based models will be key to predicting future periglacial landscape change as warming exceeds historical trends.  +
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A major challenge of geophysics today is addressing the problems of general interest through intense collaboration that bridges disciplinary boundaries. Such collaborations are greatly complicated by the fact that Earth Sciences have steadily diverged and evolved to the point of the Tower of Babel. Scientific jargon makes it difficult to meaningfully explore ideas across disciplines, while lack of cyberinfrastructure for sharing causes poor reproducibility and code reuse.<br> My vision for an EarthCube frontend is that of a maximally simple API that could be run from any platform or in a browser. At it's core, it would support the following functionality: # make it really simple for someone to submit their own data, models and software with provenance and descriptive metadata; # support data discovery in 4D space, at a range of scales, through semantically-enabled metadata (and the data might - and will - be stored in one of the existing databases); # have potential for elaborate visualization capabilities; # build up upon a social network of some sort (so that there's a face behind each data component); and, finally, # make it easy to create, modify and run workflows remotely through intelligent combination of software and data components. The last point seems critical for long term useability of EarthCube, and requires upfront thinking and code coupling capabilities.<br> Specifically, the plug-and-play component programming approach used by CSDMS could be adapted by the larger solid Earth geophysics community with great long-term benefits, hopefully resulting in better scientific reproducibility, code reuse and, eventually, streamlined collaboration.  +
A major issue, hampering our understanding about the human impacts on sediment fluxes is our limited knowledge about the magnitude and controlling factors of catchment sediment yields (SY, t km-2 y-1) under ‘baseline’ conditions, i.e. the SY that could be expected from a catchment if it was unaffected by human impacts. To address this problem, a dataset was set up with measured SY-data from 146 catchments in Europe that are little or not affected by humans in terms of land use and have no significant reservoirs, lakes, impoundments or glaciers in their upstream area. The considered catchments span a wide range in catchment areas (0.3 – 4,000km²) and observed SY-values (0.5 – 3,100 t km-2 y-1). Analyses of these data indicates that climate exerts little control on the observed range of SY-values. However, strong correlations were found between SY and average catchment slope, lithology and tectonic activity (as derived from a globally available earthquake hazard map). Based on these findings, a regression model was developed that allows predicting baseline SY. Model calibration and validation results indicate that this model is able to provide robust approximations of the baseline SY, with >95% of predictions deviating less than one order of magnitude from the measured SY-values. This model can therefore significantly improve our understanding about the controlling factors of SY and their sensitivity to human impacts. However, it is also the first model that explicitly considers the effect of tectonic activity on catchment SY. Despite the relatively limited tectonic activity in many of these catchments, differences in earthquake sensitivity alone was found to explain already more than 40% of the observed variation in SY. Our results therefore illustrate that tectonic activity has a strong, but hitherto largely neglected, influence on SY.  +
A mathematical model of carbonate platform sedimentation is presented in which the depth-dependent carbonate growth rate determines the depositional rate of a platform top responding to relative sea-level rise. This model predicts that carbonate platform evolution is primarily controlled by the initial water depth and the sediment production rate at the initial depth, rather than by the maximum potential production rate and imposed rate of relative sea-level rise. A long-standing paradox in the understanding of drowned carbonate platforms in the geological record is based on comparing relatively slow long-term rates of relative sea-level rise with maximum growth potentials of healthy platforms. The model presented here demonstrates that a carbonate platform could be paradoxically drowned by a constant relative sea-level rise when the rate is still less than the maximum carbonate production potential. This does not require other external controls of environmental change, such as nutrient supply or siliciclastic sedimentation. If the rate of relative sea-level rise is higher than the production rate at the initial water depth, the top of the carbonate platform gradually drops below the active photic zone and drowns even if the rate of relative sea-level rise is lower than the maximum carbonate accumulation growth potential. This result effectively resolves the paradox of a drowned carbonate platform. Test runs conducted at bracketed rates of relative sea-level rise have determined how fast the system catches up and maintains the “keep-up” phase, which is a measure of the time necessary for the basin to respond fully to the external forcing. The duration of the “catch-up” phase of platform response (termed carbonate response time) scales with the initial seawater depth and the platform-top aggradation rate. The catch-up duration can be significantly elongated with an increase in the rate of relative sea-level rise. The transition from the catch-up to the keep-up phases can also be delayed by a time interval associated with ecological reestablishment after platform flooding. The carbonate model here employs a logistic equation to model the colonization of carbonate-producing marine organisms and captures the initial time interval for full ecological reestablishment. The increase in delay time due to the carbonate response time and self-organized processes associated with biological colonization, implies a greater likelihood of autogenic origin for high-frequency cyclic strata than has been previously estimated.  
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A new approach for mapping landslide hazard is developed by combining probabilities of landslide probability derived from a data-driven statistical approach and process-based model of shallow landsliding. Our statistical approach integrates the influence of seven site attributes on observed landslides using a frequency ratio method. Influential attributes and resulting susceptibility maps depend on the observations of landslides considered: all types of landslides, debris avalanches only, or source areas of debris avalanches. For each landslide type the frequency ration (FR) classification is converted into a Stability Index (SI), mapped across our study domain in the North Cascades National Park, WA. Using distributed landslide observations a continuous function is developed to relate local SI values to landslide probability. This probability is combined with spatially distributed probability of landsliding obtained from Landlab using a two-dimensional binning method that employs empirical and modeled based probabilities as indices and calculates empirical probability of landsliding at the intersections of bin ranges of the empirical and process-based probability domains. Based on this we developed a probabilistic correction factor to modeled local landslide probability. Improvements in distinguishing potantially unstable domain with the proposed model is quantified statistically.  +
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A new class of models based on population ecology, nutrient-geochemistry, and sedimentology is able to simulate carbonate accretion in reef and shelf environments. Unlike previous models for carbonates, they produce very detailed simulations of facies variabilities in space and time. With adjustments to the model runs the range of variabilities can be explored and described statistically. We look at comparisons of the statistics from the models and in outcrops/drillcores of carbonate rocks and ecological transects of present-day seabed areas.  +
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A new submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) model is developed and incorporated into the fully coupled hydrodynamic-water quality framework of SCHISM-ICM in order to account for the impacts of SAV to the aquatic system. This multidisciplinary study incorporates biogeochemistry, hydrodynamics, numerical computing and field survey data. The interactions between SAV, hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry contain several complex nonlinear feedback loops, which had not previously been explored. My research uses a fully coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry-SAV model to quantitatively explore the relative contributions of each process associated with SAV (from purely physical processes such as dragging, to purely biological processes such as growth) to its total impact on the system. Through applications, we find that SAV generally encourages phytoplankton accumulation by increasing the residence time, while suppressing local primary production of the phytoplankton through competition for light and nutrients. The dynamic feedback of SAV to hydrodynamics is significant, accounting for up to 80% of the changes of the water quality variables. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating the nonlinear feedback loops in a model in order to correctly account for complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical processes. This new SAV model has immediate applications in the monitoring and guidance of SAV removal (e.g. San Francisco Bay and Delta) or recovery (e.g. Chesapeake Bay) in different systems over the world.  +
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A number of two- and three-dimensional models are currently available to calculate sediment transport and channel change in rivers. These three-dimensional models rely on time-averaging and parameterization of the turbulence. Available depth-averaged, two-dimensional models also rely on simple boundary stress closures. In relatively simple channels these models have predictive capability, but they often perform poorly when there is large-scale flow separation or when secondary circulation is strong. Sharp meanders, channel constrictions, many engineering structures, vegetation, and certain types of bedforms all cause flow separation, secondary circulation, and free shear layers. Turbulence-resolving flow and sediment transport models may do better at predicting channel change in complex channels, but at a substantially larger computational cost. With parallelization, turbulence-resolving models can now be developed and applied to refractory fluvial morphodynamic problems. Detached-Eddy Simulation (DES) is a hybrid large eddy simulation (LES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) method. RANS is applied to the near-bed grid cells, where grid resolution is not sufficient to fully resolve wall turbulence. LES is applied further from the bed and banks. A one equation turbulence closure model with a wall-distance dependence, such as that of Spalart and Allmaras (SA), is ideally suited for the DES approach. The rough wall extension of the SA model is utilized herein. Our river DES numerical modeling system was developed in OpenFOAM. The model resolves large-scale turbulence using DES and simultaneously integrates the suspended sediment advection-diffusion equation, wherein advection is provided by the DES velocity field minus particle settling, and diffusion is provided by the sub-grid or RANS eddy viscosity. As such, turbulent suspension throughout most of the flow depth results from resolved turbulent motions. A two-dimensional, depth-averaged flow model, also written in OpenFOAM, determines the local water surface elevation. A separate program was written to automatically construct the block-hexagonal, computational grid between the calculated water surface and a triangulated surface of a digital elevation model of the given river reach. Domain decomposition of the grid is employed to break up the integration between multiple processors, and Open MPI provides communication between the processors. The model has shown very good scalability up to at least 128 processors. Results of the modeling system will be shown of flow and suspended sediment model in lateral separation eddies in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The eddy recirculation zones exist downstream of channel constrictions from tributary debris fans. The modeling system is currently being developed and validated to be used in designing discharges from Glen Canyon Dam for the preservation of sandbar beaches, which are critical habitat for endangered fish. Keywords: fluvial geomorphology, sediment transport, lateral separation zones. Movie at: https://csdms.colorado.edu/mediawiki/images/GrandCanyonDES.avi  
A series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory of the University of Minnesota to study the effect of changing precipitation patterns on landscape evolution over long-time scales. High resolution digital elevation (DEM) both in space and time along with instantaneous sediment transport rates were measured over a range of rainfall and uplift rates. These experiments were designed to develop a complete drainage network by growth and propagation of erosional instabilities in response to tectonic uplift. We focus our study to the investigation of how changes in the frequency and magnitude of large-scale rainfall patterns (e.g. monsoonal variability) might influence the development of mountainous landscapes. Preliminary analysis suggests that the statistics of topographic signatures, for example, evolution of drainage network, slopes, curvatures, etc., show dependence on both rainfall patterns and uplift rate. The implications of these results for predictive modeling of landscapes and the resulting sediment transport are discussed.  +
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A series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted to study the effect of changing precipitation patterns on landscape evolution at the short and long-time scales. High resolution digital elevation (DEM) both in space and time were measured for a range of rainfall patterns and uplift rates. Results from our study show distinct signatures of extreme climatic fluctuations on the statistical and geometrical structure of landscape features. These signatures are evident in widening and deepening of channels and valleys, change in drainage patterns within a basin and change in the probabilistic structure of erosional events, such as, landslides and debris flows. Our results suggest a change in scale-dependent behavior of erosion rates at the transient state resulting in a regime shift in the transport processes in channels from supply-limited to sediment-flux dependent. This regime shift causes variation in sediment supply, and thus in water to sediment flux ratio (Qs/Qw), in channels of different sub-drainage basins which is further manifested in the longitudinal river profiles as the abrupt changes in their gradients (knickpoints), advecting upstream on the river network as the time proceeds.  +
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A two-dimensional numerical model was developed for simulating free surface flow. The model is based on the solutions of two-dimensional depth averaged Navier-Stokes equations. A finite volume method is applied such that mass conservation is satisfied both locally and globally. The model adopted the two-step, high resolution MUSCL-Hancock scheme. This Godunov type scheme is used together with the approximate Riemann solver. The boundary cells are treated as cut-cells in order to accommodate arbitrarily geometries of natural rivers. There are sixteen types of cut-cells depending on the slope of the boundary intersection with the cell. A cell merging technique is incorporated in the model that combines small cells with neighboring cells to create a larger cell, helps keeping the CFL condition. The cut-cells approach permits a fully boundary-fitted mesh without implementing a complex mesh generation procedure for irregular geometries. The model is verified by several laboratory experiments including unsteady flow passing through cylindrical piers and dam break flow in a rectangular channel. The model is also applied to simulate a 100-year flood event occurred at the Huron Island reach of the Mississippi River, where flow paths in the island formed a complex channel network as flood propagates.  +
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Acoustic sediment monitoring technology provides a practical means to obtain high resolution estimates of suspended sand flux. However, bed bedload flux can be a significant component of total load and remains difficult to measure directly. In most cases, bedload is treated as a power-law function of water discharge, a constant fraction of suspended sand flux, or ignored. However, bedload flux may vary independently from water discharge or suspended sediment flux in supply-limited rivers due to systematic grain size and reach-geometric effects. We propose a model for bedload flux that enables improved prediction using variables that are routinely measured at acoustic sediment monitoring stations.<br><br>Though this model is rooted in causal physical theory, it contains several scaling parameters that must be constrained empirically. To this end, we propose a Bayesian statistical procedure that facilitates propagation of uncertainty from multiple sources of information. Application of this procedure is demonstrated at one monitoring station on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Repeat bathymetric surveys of dune migration in the reach adjacent to the monitoring station are used to estimate bedload flux, providing an observational basis for statistical analysis. Parameter estimation and prediction are also informed by data from other rivers, which is incorporated in a hierarchical framework.<br><br>We find that conventional methods of estimating bedload flux fail to capture fluctuations driven by the interaction between flow strength and sediment supply, and can introduce large persistent biases to estimates of total load. Our model is applicable in a wide range of scenarios, and substantially reduces the uncertainty associated with estimating bedload flux in sand bed rivers.  +
Addressing society's water and energy challenges requires sustainable use of the Earth's critical zones and subsurface environment, as well as technological innovations in treatment and other engineered systems. Reactive transport models (RTMs) provide a powerful tool to inform engineering design and provide solutions for these critical challenges. In this keynote, I will showcase the flexibility and value of RTMs using real-world applications that focus on (1) assessing groundwater quality management with respect to nitrate under agricultural managed aquifer recharge, and (2) systematically investigating the physical, chemical and biological conditions that enhance CO2 drawdown rates in agricultural settings using enhanced weathering. The keynote will conclude with a discussion of the possibilities to advance the use of reactive transport models and future research opportunities therein.  +
After Glacial Lake Agassiz drained ~8.5 ka, the Red River (North Dakota, USA) formed, flowing northward into Lake Winnipeg and incising into paleolacustrine sediment as it meandered. The Red River provides a natural experiment to interrogate the role of slope change on river meandering and morphologic evolution as it is characterized by shallow bed slopes (~0.0001), which have been controlled by crustal deformation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to ice sheet unloading since the river’s inception. GIA has changed Red River channel elevation by 10s of meters, reducing slopes by up to 60% in the downstream reaches. We isolate the role of slope in order to explore its importance to lateral migration rate relative to other factors such as bank strength, sediment supply, and fluid flow. We quantified the impact of GIA-induced slope changes on the Red River’s morphology by performing an analysis of river meanders and cutoffs (Kodama et al., 2023). We constructed a dataset that quantified the number of meanders, cutoffs, and modeled change in slopes caused by GIA along the Red River. Notably, the abundance of cutoffs normalized for channel width (a proxy for time-averaged meander rate) statistically significantly correlates with changes in slope, with far fewer cutoffs in the downstream reaches of the river, where the largest slope reduction occurred. We expanded this analysis to two tributaries of the Red River, and found that this relationship holds in all three river systems regardless of sign (negative or positive) of the GIA-induced slope change. We infer that slope drives changes in lateral migration rate for these detachment-limited systems by modulating the magnitude of shear stress on riverbanks. We next developed a modeling framework by modifying a simple kinematic model of meander migration (Howard & Knutson, 1984) to explore the impact of GIA-induced slope change on the temporal trends of meander migration rate along the Red River. Previous work showed that the meander rate of two Red River meander scrolls exponentially decayed over the Holocene (Brooks 2003), which we are able to simulate with our GIA forced meandering model. Our study isolates the role of slope on river lateral migration and highlights how rivers near former ice sheets can respond to changes in slope that occur over thousands of years.  
After Superstorm Sandy impacted the New Jersey coastline in 2012, the state’s primary coastal resiliency plan was to fortify the entire shoreline by constructing large-scale berm-dune systems along the beach. These large artificial dunes, funded entirely by Congress, were constructed with the goal of mitigating future storm damage to houses and infrastructure. Two long-term management questions are 1) is it feasible for a beachfront community to maintain these projects over the long term?; and 2) if not, what fraction of the cost would need to be subsidized? To tackle these questions, we use a “geo-economic” model that captures the natural processes of beach and dune erosion and migration via storm overwash coupled with engineering interventions of beach nourishment and dune construction. The economic portion of the model accounts for the relationship between property values and berm-dune geometry. Previous work suggests that due to their protective and recreational value, higher dunes and wider beaches increase that property values. However, it is unclear whether this relationship holds true for dune protection some years after a storm has occurred as lags in major storm events may lead to perceptions of lower risks. Thus, beachfront communities may place greater value upon viewership and private property, rather than on protection by artificial dunes. By deriving mathematical expressions for optimal berm and dune size as a function of geologic and economic parameters, our model suggests that changes in risk perception can lower property values and therefore reduce the ability of a community to keep up with the costs of maintaining these structures. We are currently testing this hypothesis by analyzing past and present LiDAR imagery (i.e. 2010, 2014, and 2018) and real-estate data from Long Beach Island, NJ.  +
Agricultural expansion has led to high rates of deforestation and land-use change in tropical ecosystems, relegating many of the remaining native forests to networks of fragmented patches. As a result, large forest-dwelling ungulates may alter movement and habitat-use patterns to accommodate for the changed spatial orientation of essential resources. In turn, some native patches may be subjected to increased ungulate impacts (e.g. trampling, bioturbation, and seed dispersal/ predation), while others may be devoid of these influences. We created an individual-based model utilizing empirical ungulate movement data from white-lipped peccaries (WLP) in the Brazilian Cerrado to evaluate variations in habitat use with degree of fragmentation (e.g. connectivity and number of patches) and percent of native forest cover (FC). In the model, a peccary herd moves across a landscape with a percent FC between 10% and 100% and one to four native forest patches. We then quantified the distribution of habitat-use intensity and percent of unused native habitat after five years. To empirically quantify impacts of white-lipped peccary habitat use, we measured seedling density in 72 1x1 plots in the Cerrado, 44 with and 28 without WLP. Results indicate that in a fully-connected landscape (one-patch simulations), as percent FC decreases, the frequency distribution of habitat use goes from narrow and left-skewed (low use in the majority of the habitat) to widely and evenly distributed (no use to high use in distinct parts of the habitat), reflecting a more heterogeneous use of the habitat with less FC. In a fragmented landscape (two-four patch simulations) below 30% FC, habitat use is driven by the degree of connectivity between forest patches. However, above 60% FC, the percent of unused forest is negligible (similar to one-patch simulations), indicating that patch spatial configuration is no longer the driving factor of habitat use past a 60% FC threshold. Between 40% and 60% FC, habitat use is a function of both connectivity and percent FC. Preliminary empirical results suggest riparian forests have the greatest difference in mean seedling density between areas with or without WLP, while palm swamps have the least. Collectively, these results suggest conservation measures in agricultural landscapes should emphasize percent FC, connectivity, or both, depending on the amount of forest remaining and that riparian zones may be most adversely affected by the loss of large ungulates.  
Alluvial megafans are sensitive recorders of landscape evolution: the influence of both autogenic processes and allogenic forcing and of the coupled dynamics of the fan with its mountainous catchment can often be deciphered from the megafan sediment record and the system’s morphometric characteristics. The Lannemezan megafan in the northern Pyrenean foreland was abandoned by its mountainous feeder stream during the Quaternary and subsequently incised. During the incision, a flight of alluvial terraces was left along the stream network. We use numerical models (CIDRE model, Carretier et al. 2015) to explore the relative roles of autogenic processes and external forcing in the building, abandonment and incision of a foreland megafan. We then compare the results with the inferred evolution of the Lannemezan megafan. We conclude that autogenic processes are sufficient to explain the building of a megafan and the long-term entrenchment of its feeding river at the time and space scales that match the Lannemezan setting. In the case of the Lannemezan megafan, climate, through temporal variations in precipitation rate, may have played a second-order role in the pattern of incision at a shorter time-scale. In contrast, base-level changes, tectonic activity in the mountain range or tilting of the foreland through flexural isostatic rebound do not appear to have played a role in the abandonment of the Lannemezan megafan.  +
Along Andean-type convergent margins, the preserved stratigraphic successions in retroarc foreland basins record complex interactions between oceanic plate subduction, overriding lithosphere deformation, and surface processes. Modeling their interactions and their impacts on basin stratigraphy helps to distinguish the geological footprint of the operating processes. We use a source-to-sink landscape evolution model, Badlands, to investigate the basin stratigraphic formation in response to changes in subduction morphology, hinterland orogenic uplift, overriding lithosphere strength, and surface erosional efficiency. Our modeling results reveal distinguishable responses of basin sedimentation to the imposed tectonic and surface forcings. Firstly, with sufficient sediment supply (i.e., the basin is filled with sediments), subduction at higher slab dip leads to development of shallower and narrower basins, with increasing volume of fluvial and shallow-water deposits accumulation. For mechanically thicker overriding plates, a deeper foreland basin tends to develop, though the basin width does not show consistent changes with increasing lithosphere strength. When sediment supply is further enhanced by either increasing orogenic uplift rate or surface erodibility, the basin sedimentation extends horizontally while the basin depth changes in an opposite way. Secondly, our basin subsidence analysis reveals strong impact of flexural rebound at the foredeep on modifying the basin morphology and strata dipping. We further found positive correlations between the flexural rebound and the progradation of fluvial deposits at the foredeep. Lastly, by normalizing the basin width to orogenic belt width and basin depth to maximum foreland flexure, we categorize the basins to be accommodation-dominant and supply-dominant, which helps to evaluate the impact of varying each contributing process on the basin development. Overall, our source-to-sink models reveal the complex interactions between surface and tectonic forcings, and highlight the huge potential of extracting their signals from the geological record.  
Along a quarter of the Beaufort Sea coast, back-barrier estuaries modulate the transport and transformation of nitrogen and carbon, impacting food webs and carbon budgets. These estuaries are adjacent to permafrost, a large carbon reservoir that contains ~1700 Gt of organic carbon that is thawing from rapid Arctic warming. Thawed dissolved organic matter and nutrients may be transported to the coastal ocean by groundwater and rivers, adding nutrients to the coast that may impact production and biogeochemical cycles. It is unclear what effect permafrost thaw will have on Arctic estuarine biogeochemistry, partly because present-day spatial and temporal variability of residence time and export in Arctic back-barrier estuaries is unknown and complicates efforts to predict future change. To investigate the residence time of water, as well as estuary-shelf fluxes, this study uses a numerical modeling approach. Specifically, a hydrodynamic model, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), is being implemented for Arey, Kaktovik, and Jago Lagoons along the Beaufort Sea coast of northern Alaska. The model accounts for processes including local winds, rivers, and larger scale circulation. Analysis will focus on variations in circulation dynamics within the ice break-up and open water season of 2019.  +
Along wave-influenced deltas, wave-driven longshore currents usually interact with the fluvial jet at the river mouth, creating a sharp gradient alongshore in sediment transport/deposition and hence a corresponding change in coastline morphology. When multiple channels intersect a delta coastline, morphological changes can take on a complex outlook driven by the multiplicity of the river channels and their ‘hydraulic groyne effect’, whereby the overall effect of the river jets is to limit the loss of sediment within the coastal littoral system and ensure shoreline stability. This study explores the dynamic relationships between waves and fluvial discharge along a coastline intersected by river mouths by employing a numerical model of an idealized delta coastline containing two river mouths. The modelling is undertaken using Delft3D, in order to simulate both sediment transport and wave propagation along with the accompanying changes in coastline morphology. Analysis focuses on the relative change in coastline morphology, updrift, and downdrift of the river channels, in relation to varying scenarios of the incident wave climate, fluvial input, and river channel geometry. Specifically, water discharge entering the basin is set temporally constant during a model run but is varied in the range of 500 - 2000 m3/s between runs. Further, 3 scenarios of fluvial sediment discharge corresponding to low, medium, and high sediment discharges, are incorporated into each fluvial discharge scenario. Finally, waves approach the coastline from an incident angle of <45o, generating longshore sediment transport proportional to its significant height and approach angle, which are varied between model runs in the ranges of 1.0 - 1.5 m and 15 - 42 degrees, respectively. The study is set to provide new insights into the morphodynamics of wave-influenced deltas resulting from the interaction of waves with fluvial discharges at interannual timescales.  +
Although numerous approaches for deriving water depth from bands of remotely-sensed imagery in the visible spectrum exist, digital terrain models for remote tropical carbonate landscapes remain few in number. The paucity is due, in part, to the lack of in situ measurements of pertinent information needed to tune water depth derivation algorithms. In many cases, the collection of the needed ground-truth data is often prohibitively expensive or logistically infeasible. We present an approach for deriving water depth from multi-spectral satellite imagery without the need for direct measurement of water depth, bottom reflectance, or water column properties within the site of interest. The reliability of the approach is demonstrated for five satellite images, each at a different study site, with overall RMSE values ranging from 0.84 m to 1.56 m when using chlorophyll concentrations equal to 0.05 $\text{mg m}^{-3}$ and a generic seafloor spectrum generated from a spectral library of common benthic constituents. Sensitivity analyses show that the model is robust to selection of bottom reflectance inputs and errors in the atmospheric correction and sensitive to parameterization of chlorophyll concentration.  +
An Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) model is realized for seafloor elevation changes in an area of shallow continental shelf in the North Sea. Extreme events have practical application in this area of abundant Unexploded Ordinance at the seabed and also wind energy projects. The events being examined are from the motion of seabed sediment in megaripples, sand waves, sand bars and sand sheets, but driven by normal and extreme swell- and wind-waves, tides and human activities. Changes of seabed elevation up to 8m in one year are observed, but rare. The observational dataset for the study is a large, publicly available compilation of 3-decades of annual, hydrographic-standard bathymetric soundings in the German Bight, provided in gridded form at a spatial resolution of 50m. Counts of annual seabed elevation changes by elapsed time were compiled and related to the seabed features, such as tidal channels (which have previously been well studied). The change statistics were compared to forms of the Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions, per pixel and also by small morphodynamically uniform subareas. The Generalized Pareto distribution with coefficient c ≈ -6.0 to -6.5 appears to be the appropriate model, but adjusted according to water depths and locations on features. The result suggests a method to statistically model seabed behavior including extreme events.  +
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An Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model is used to represent the propagation of internal tides in the Bay of Biscay and their desintegration into solitons. To model important vertical variability of the thermocline, such as solitons, a non-hydrostatic model is necessary. In this study, we test the possibility of integrated non-hydrostatics terms under weakly nonlinear and nonhydrostatic approximation. Non-hydrostatic terms derived with this assumption, are directly added to the hydrostatic equations. We then address numerical problems : mesh size limitation responsible for numerical dispersion, numerical instabilities. After having investigated these problems analytically and tested the limitation, a stable method is proposed. Results for a 2D idealised configuration of the Bay of Biscay is described : the model is forced by the semi-diurnal tidal wave M2, two layers of different density are considered. The internal waves is desintegrated into solitons after few tidal periods.  +
An accurate, three-dimensional Navier–Stokes based immersed boundary code called TURBINS has been developed, validated and tested, for the purpose of simulating density-driven gravity and turbidity currents propagating over complex topographies. The code is second order accurate in space and third order in time, uses MPI, and employs a domain decomposition approach for parallelism. It makes use of multigrid preconditioners and Krylov iterative solvers for the systems of linear equations obtained by the finite difference discretization of the governing equations. Various boundary conditions on the complex geometry are imposed via the direct forcing variant of the immersed boundary approach, utilizing a stable interpolation method. Bi- and trilinear interpolations are employed in such a way that the original discretization accuracy is retained with no additional restriction on the time step. Weak and strong scaling tests were performed for a uniform flow over array of spheres. We obtain very good scaling results as expected for multigrid solvers. We perform convergence tests via uniform flow over cylinder. Both skin friction and pressure coefficients show very good agreement with results reported by other authors. Subsequently, a computational investigation was conducted of mono-, bi- and polydisperse lock-exchange turbidity currents interacting with complex bottom topography. Our simulation results are compared against laboratory experiments of other authors. Several features of the flow such as deposit profiles, front location, suspended mass and runout length are discussed. For a monodisperse lock-exchange current propagating over a flat surface, we investigate the influence of the boundary conditions at the streamwise and top boundaries, and we generally find good agreement with corresponding laboratory experiments. However, we note some differences with a second set of experimental data for polydisperse turbidity currents over flat surfaces. A comparison with experimental data for bidisperse currents with varying mass fractions of coarse and fine particles yields good agreement for all cases except those where the current consists almost exclusively of fine particles. For polydisperse currents over a two-dimensional bottom topography, significant discrepancies are observed. Potential reasons are discussed, including erosion and bedload transport. Finally, we investigate the influence of a three-dimensional Gaussian bump on the deposit pattern of a bidisperse current. The suspension includes two particle sizes with a settling velocity ratio of 10. As the current travels over the bottom topography, we record instantaneous deposit profiles and wall shear stress contours. As the current impinges on the obstacle, it becomes strongly three-dimensional (see Fig. 1). Comparison of the final deposit profiles near the Gaussian bump against the case of a flat surface shows a smaller influence of the topography on the fine particles than on the coarse ones. Due to lateral deflection, deposition generally decreases near the bump, while increasing away from it. Some distance downstream of the obstacle, the deposit profiles lose their memory of the bump and become nearly uniform again. Instantaneous wall shear stress profiles are employed in order to estimate the critical conditions at which bedload transport and/or particle resuspension can occur in various regions.  
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An enduring obstacle to reliable modeling of the short and long term evolution of the stream channel-hillslope ensemble has been the difficulty of estimating stresses generated by stream hydrodynamics. To capture the influence of complex 3D flows on bedrock channel evolution, we derive the contribution of hydrodynamic stresses to the stress state of surrounding bedrock through a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) approximation of the Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations. The GPU-accelerated SPH solution locally integrates the N-S equations by discretizing the flow into millions of particles which communicate local motions to neighbor particles using a smoothing kernel. Coupling the flow solutions to the stress-strain formulation of the Failure Earth Response Model (FERM) provides three-dimensional erosion as a function of the strength-stress ratio of each point in the computational domain. This novel approach allows the resulting geomorphic response to be quantified for bedrock channels with bends, knickpoints, plunge pools, and other geometric and hydrodynamic complexities. Strength parameters used in FERM (tensile strength, cohesion, and friction angle) are readily constrained with field observations. Fluvial stresses calculated with SPH are added to the other components of the total stress state, such as slope-generated and tectonically-generated stresses. From the coupling of SPH and FERM we gain 3D physics-based erosion and a dynamic link between complex flows and hillslope dynamics in a finite element framework. Initial results indicate that the inertial forces generated by a simple 45° bend in a bedrock channel exceed the shear forces by a factor of two or more. Capturing these inertial forces and their 3D erosive potential provides a more complete understanding of the stream channel-hillslope ensemble.  +
An enduring obstacle to reliable modeling of the short and long-term evolution of the stream channel-hillslope ensemble has been the difficulty of estimating stresses generated by stream hydrodynamics. To capture the influence of complex three-dimensional (3D) flows on bedrock channel evolution, we derive the contribution of hydrodynamic stresses to the stress state of the underlying bedrock through a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) approximation of the Navier-Stokes equations as calculated by the DualSPHysics code (Crespo et al., 2015). Coupling the SPH flow solutions to the stress-strain formulation of the Failure Earth REsponse Model (FERM) (Koons et al., 2013) provides three-dimensional erosion as a function of the strength-stress ratio of each point in the computational domain. From the coupling of SPH and FERM we gain a 3D physics-based erosion scheme and a two-way link between complex flows and hillslope dynamics in a finite element framework.  +
Analysis of topography can reveal signals resulting from both past and currently active tectonic regimes. In central Aotearoa New Zealand today, the Marlborough faults transfer plate boundary motion from the Hikurangi subduction zone to the highly oblique Alpine fault. The rocks of the Marlborough region have hosted active structures since the mid-Cretaceous when they sat at the edge of the Gondwana margin. Here we use tectonic geomorphology in conjunction with geological observations to unravel the long-term tectonic history of this plate boundary transition zone with emphasis on variations along and across strike, with depth and in time. To understand the active deformation occurring under the present tectonic regime, as manifested by recent complex faulting during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, we focus on understanding the 3D structure of the region as well as the development of, and control by, inherited structures. Cretaceous restoration of eastern Marlborough suggests that the major faults formed during extension of Te Riu-a-Māui Zealandia preceding breakaway from Gondwana. Overall, given the uncertainties of the reconstruction, the Cretaceous structural similarity of paleo-Marlborough with wider South Zealandia seems a remarkably clear and consistent match. How much of the distinctive landscape of Marlborough is due to the constraints of the current plate boundary versus the influence of tectonic inheritance?  +
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Analyzing patterns of shoreline change between repeated LIDAR surveys reveals disparate styles of behavior on different temporal and spatial scales (Lazarus and Murray, GRL 2007; Lazarus, Ashton, Murray, Tebbens, and Burroughs, in review). We use wavelet analysis to investigate the mean variance (or spectral power) of cross-shore shoreline change, as well as the alongshore locations exhibiting high variance, across a range of scales. The time spans between surveys range from one to 12 years. On scales of a kilometer and less, the variance of shoreline change does not increase with the length of time between surveys. On these spatial scales, significant changes in shoreline location tend to occur in localized zones, and these zones shift from one time period to another rather than accumulating. Incidentally, the variance across these scales also exhibits a power-law behavior, even though different processes are known to dominate shoreline change on different scales within the range from 10-103 m. However, on scales larger than a kilometer, a peak in the variance appears, and both the magnitude of the variance and the alongshore scale of maximum variance increases over time; on these scales of a few to ten kilometers, shoreline changes do accumulate. We interpret these observations as follows: On scales of a kilometer and less, each wave event creates an alongshore-heterogeneous pattern of shoreline change, with the alongshore locations of accentuated shoreline change depending on the characteristics of the waves (height, period, deep-water approach angle) and how those waves interact with heterogeneities on the seafloor—bathymetric features on the inner continental shelf are associated with shoreline change on the kilometer scale (List REFSXXX), and those in the surf zone and swash zones produce changes with alongshore scales on the order of one hundred meters and ten meters, respectively . Repeating such shoreline changes over many wave events superimposes essentially independent patterns of change, with effectively no memory of previous changes. The cumulative changes on scales of a few to ten kilometers, in contrast, suggest a diffusion of plan-view coastline shape; the relationship between the length scales of the variance peak over different time scales are consistent with diffusion, given estimates of effective diffusivity for this coastline (REF ANDREW, JORDAN). Apparently, on large alongshore length scales, the residual alongshore sediment flux that emerges from the many disparate wave events and associated complicated smaller scale patterns of sediment transport can be treated as related to shoreline orientation (the gradient in shoreline location)—the way that a long-term, large-scale, gradient-related flux of soil creep on hillslopes emerges from the complicated smaller-scale patterns of tree throw, gopher burrows, etc..  
Answers to scientific questions often involve coupled systems that lie within separate fields of study. An example of this is flexural isostasy and surface mass transport. Erosion, deposition, and moving ice masses change loads on the Earth surface, which induce a flexural isostatic response. These isostatic deflections in turn change topography, which is a large control on surface processes. We couple a landscape evolution model (CHILD) and a flexural isostasy model (Flexure) within the CSDMS framework to understand interactions between these processes. We highlight a few scenarios in which this feedback is crucial for understanding what happens on the surface of the Earth: foredeeps around mountain belts, rivers at the margins of large ice sheets, and the "old age" of decaying mountain ranges. We also show how the response changes from simple analytical solutions for flexural isostasy to numerical solutions that allow us to explore spatial variability in lithospheric strength. This work places the spotlight on the kinds of advances that can be made when members of the broader Earth surface process community design their models to be coupleable, share them, and connect them under the unified framework developed by CSDMS. We encourage Earth surface scientists to unleash their creativity in constructing, sharing, and coupling their models to better learn how these building blocks make up the wonderfully complicated Earth surface system.  +
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Anthropogenic activities associated with climate change and urbanization in coastal deltas (i.e. groundwater extraction, coastal engineering and urban loading) have resulted in freshwater degradation through the upwelling of saline paleowater. Factors controlling the preservation of paleowater, and the initiation of exfiltration and subsequent upwelling of saline water are not yet well understood. This research uses coupled morphodynamic-hydrogeologic modeling to evaluate the groundwater response to geomorphic change. Delft3D is used to model the formation of coastal deltas throughout the Holocene and create generic three-dimensional distributions of sediment deposits characteristic of fluvial, wave, and tidal dominated deltas. The generated sediment deposits are used to create three-dimensional effective grain-size maps by convoluting the spatial distribution of each grain-size. This accounts for the combined effect of multiple grain-sizes while preserving basin-scale heterogeneity commonly seen in highly heterogeneous depositional environments. The effective grain size maps are used as the geologic input for density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport modeling. Results are expected to show that the degree of aquifer heterogeneity correlates to the balance of fluvial and marine morphological forces shaping sediment deposition. Spatial variability in basin-scale aquifer heterogeneity is anticipated to control the exfiltration and upwelling patterns of saline paleowater in deltaic environments. The modeling approach taken in this research is novel and allows for the investigation of evolving groundwater systems with changes in landscape. Results of this study will allow for the assessment of delta vulnerability to freshwater degradation from upwelling saline paleowater, based on morphological classification. In the future, this research may be used to help determine which deltas are most at risk for salinization and where science and engineering efforts can be most beneficial to society.  
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Any code that attempts to simulate large scale geophysical flows and their effect on topography needs a way to couple local flow properties to a rate of sediment erosion or deposition. However, the mechanisms responsible for a particle’s entrainment into a flow are poorly understood. Early erosional models setup a force balance between the fluctuating hydrodynamic forces acting on a particle and the adhesive forces holding a particle to the substrate. Later researchers eschewed this force balance in favor of an energy balance. They claim that a particle is constantly receiving energy from turbulent fluctuations in the flow near the surface, and that a particle will become entrained when it receives a critical amount of energy. Despite all the work that has gone into deriving an erosion model based on theory, the most popular, and most accurate erosion model used in geophysical codes is the Garcia-Parker model, which is a simple fit to several sets of experimental data. But because their model is empirical, it’s impossible to know under what circumstances the model can and cannot be reasonably applied. A theoretical model would be much more desirable for precisely this reason. Our goal is to better understand the mechanisms of particle entrainment through the use of direct numerical simulation. We are using a code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which solves the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and uses a Lagrange multiplier method to enforce the correct boundary condition on the surface of the particles within the computational domain. With this method, we are able to accurately simulate the motion of thousands, or even tens of thousands of particles in an external flow in two or three dimensions. With this code, we can study in detail the coupling between local flow structures and the forces on a particle, which will hopefully lead to a better, theoretically based model for erosion.  +
Arctic coasts have been impacted by rapid environmental change over the last 30 years. Warming air and water temperatures and the increased duration of the open water season, correlate with increases in the rate of already rapid erosion of ice-rich bluffs along the Beaufort Sea coast. To investigate longer-term changes in near-shore wave dynamics and storm surge set up as a result of sea-ice retreat, we coupled two simple modules. Following Dean and Dalrymple (1991), we model wind-driven setup as a function of wind speed and direction, azimuth relative to the shore-normal, fetch and bathymetry. The wave module calculates the wave field for fetch-limited waves in shallow water based on the Shore Protection Manual (1984). For a given wind speed, dynamic water depth and fetch, we predict the significant wave height and wave period. Both modules require fetch as a controlling parameter. Sea-ice influenced coasts, are unique in that fetch is spatially variable due to the geometry of the shoreline and temporally variable as the location of the sea ice edge moves through the sea ice free season. We determine the distance to the sea ice edge using daily Nimbus 7-SMMR/SSM/I and DMSP SSMI Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration data. The sea ice edge is defined at a threshold sea ice concentration of 15%. We find a good match between the model predictions and our observed records of meteorological conditions and nearshore water level and waves along the Beaufort Coast in the summers of 2009 and 2010. Over the period 1979-2012, fetch has increased significantly. In our study area near Drew Point, Alaska, the open water season itself lengthened from ~45 days to ~90 days. In the 1980’s and early 1990’s wave dynamics were fetch-limited during a significant period of the open water season. More recently, the distance from the coast to the sea ice edge shifts extremely rapidly (often 100’s of km over 1-2 weeks); fetch therefore only minimally influences wave dynamics as offshore distance exceeds the 140 km threshold over most of the open water season. Wave heights and surge set-up events on average have not changed in magnitude significantly, but storm surge set up events have increased in frequency.  
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Arctic hydrological processes impose an important feedback on permafrost thermal conditions. Changes in permafrost hydrology could accelerate its thawing, resulting in a positive effect on permafrost carbon decomposition rates. Therefore, it is important to understand how geomorphic and other landscape processes control permafrost distribution and its properties such as soil saturation, ice content, active layer thickness (ALT) and temperature. The Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) is a collection of hydro-thermal processes designed to work within a flexibly configured modeling framework. ATS includes the soil physics needed to capture permafrost dynamics, including ice, gas, and liquid water content, multi-layered soil physics, and flow of unfrozen water in the presence of phase change. In this study, we directly address one of the tasks of the NGEE-Arctic project by modeling the effect of climate and environmental drivers on ALT and permafrost thickness and its distribution along the subarctic hillslope. Model runs demonstrate the likely role of vegetation-snow-permafrost-hydrology interactions by exploring snow depth and organic layer influence on horizontal and vertical patterns of permafrost. Understanding changes in hydrologic flow paths and soil moisture is important to predict evolution of ecosystem and biogeochemical processes that control climate feedbacks. In addition, hillslope flowpaths, vegetation, soil organic matter distribution, variation in soil depth and mineralogy are important components of the subgrid spatial extent of permafrost. This study explores the ways to improve the quality of the permafrost predictions at the subgrid scale and contribute to the better modeling of the permafrost related processes at the pan-Arctic scale.  +
As a foundation of many ecological systems, vegetation is often a central component of ecological models used for forecasting and management. Many models are narrowly constrained by the system, species, and/or processes of interest and lack the ability to simulate specific management actions. This specificity limits their applicability to new, nonstationary, or actively-managed systems. The objective of this work is to create a Landlab component that combines an individual-based model design with grid-based model components to describe vegetation dynamics within and between grid cells. GenVeg is process-based, incorporating polymorphic plant-scale processes such as photosynthesis, dispersal, and seasonal allocation of biomass resources. Plant taxonomic principles are used to adapt the model methods based on the species (or representative species) of interest. Feedbacks between plants, plant communities, and the local physical environment utilize existing Landlab components and grid geometry to represent vegetation dynamics across the landscape. GenVeg is designed to be applied at a scale on the order of 10s to 1000s of meters over years to decades, which are scales relevant to ecosystem management and engineering planning. While the component is still under development, we will demonstrate its use within a dune environment utilizing coastal water levels and soil moisture to drive vegetation distribution across an idealized foredune system.  +
As a rift evolves from its initiation until continental breakup it goes through a number of different phases that can be associated with distinct rifted-margin domains and major sedimentary basins. Seismic and geophysical data around the globe can give us glimpses into the progression through these domains, however, it is not well understood how the fault network evolves to produce them. Additionally, sedimentation and erosion are known factors that influence the longevity of an evolving fault and may affect the overall rift evolution. Previous work has qualitatively investigated the effect surface processes have on an evolving rift, however, there has not been a quantitative approach to analyze changes to the fault network through time. To investigate the quantitative effect of surface processes on an evolving rift fault network, we utilized the two-way coupling between the geodynamics code ASPECT and the landscape evolution code FastScape to run 12 high-resolution 2D rift models. Using FastScape, we vary the erosional efficiency of the stream power law by changing the bedrock erodibility (Kf) from no surface processes to low (Kf= 10-6 m0.2/yr), medium (10-5 m0.2/yr), and high (10-4 m0.2/yr) efficiency. We then apply this to three different model setups that represent a wide, asymmetric, and symmetric rift. We analyze the models using the fault analysis toolbox (fatbox), which can track and correlate individual faults and their properties through time. Specifically, we utilize this toolbox to track the evolution of the number of faults and the cumulative fault system length and displacement through time and investigate how they change depending on the efficiency of surface processes and the rift type. Through this analysis, we find that regardless of the rift type or the efficiency of surface processes the rift fault network evolves through up to five distinct phases: 1) distributed deformation and coalescence, 2) fault system growth, 3) fault system decline and basin-ward localization, 4) rift migration, and 5) continental breakup. While we find that surface processes do not exert a strong control on the phase progression or final rifted margin architecture, they do affect the temporal evolution of the fault network by increasing fault longevity. As faults live longer with greater surface processes, the fault network phases are prolonged and continental breakup is delayed. Additionally, greater surface process efficiency leads to fewer faults forming which causes a less complex fault network.  
As climate change and environmental variability increase pressure on vulnerable communities, migration is one possible adaptation strategy. However, the decision to migrate is complex, and environmental factors are rarely the sole drivers of that decision. Rather, the decision to migrate is often influenced by a combination of economic, social, political, and environmental pressures. This is especially true in coastal communities in Bangladesh, where temporary migration has long been a method of livelihood diversification, and researchers are trying to understand how environmental factors influence existing migration flows. This work addresses a gap in current research by beginning to investigate how different “push” and “pull” drivers of migration might have distinctive variables that contribute to the ultimate decision to move or stay. In this study, random forest classification models are applied to a dataset consisting of household surveys from more than 1,200 households in southwestern Bangladesh to directly assess key variables that influence five types of migration in coastal communities: temporary migration within a village due to environmental stress, migration for education, migration for healthcare, migration for trade or commerce, and migration to visit relatives. This work demonstrates that these types of migration do have different drivers, which yields insights into the complex motivations that impact the decision to migrate. However, livelihood variables and individual aspirations were key for all investigated forms of migration. In the process, this work demonstrates that random forest models could be a powerful method for improving predictive accuracy of migration models to better inform migration policy and planning.  +
As coastal regions become more developed, many communities are considering costly engineering solutions to address coastal change, including "soft" approaches, such as beach replenishments or dune constructions, and hard structures, such as seawalls, revetments, bulkheads, or groins. Given current rates of sea level rise and the associated shoreline losses that coastal communities face, however, it is unclear whether the benefits generated by these protection measures justify the costs. We are building a set of integrated geologic and economic models to better understand the coupled evolution of developed shorelines under alternative protection policies. The first model incorporates dune construction and sediment overwash relocation into a morphodynamic model for dune evolution. We use this model to assess the costs of constructing an optimal cross-sectional area for a long-term dune system, and we explore the “geo-economic” effects on ocean views that may be diminished by constructing a dune system of particular size seaward of protected properties. A second model simulates beach width dynamics for two adjacent communities, each with their own groin structure. We use the model to analyze both coordinated and uncoordinated strategies between the two communities, reflecting individual community decisions to protect or retreat. A third model incorporates beach nourishment practices into a morphodynamic model for barrier evolution that accounts for shoreface dynamics. Results show that the efficiency of beach nourishment can be affected by the dynamic state of the shoreface during each nourishment episode. In general, these models reinforce the need to refine numerical coastal management tools to incorporate bi-directional interactions between natural processes and human responses to shoreline change.  +
As one of the three major Asian marginal seas in the western Pacific, the SCS occupies less than 1% total ocean area while accommodating 15% atoll (25434.6 km2) in the globe (GSA, 2009), which mainly distribute in the Xisha, Zhongsha and Nansha Islands. Atolls in the SCS are generally ellipse-shaped with a longer axis extending in the NE-SW direction and a wider southwest reef platform compared to the northeast. One possible explanation ascribed such features to the monsoon circulation (northeast and southwest monsoons blow alternatively in winter and summer) over the SCS (Zeng, 1984). Waves and currents influence the atoll development by (1) sediment suspension and transportation that can influence the transparency of the water, thus the symbiotic algae and the coral growth, (2) supply of dissolved oxygen and nutrient and (3) removal of metabolic wastes under normal weathers, while storm waves can cause large-scaled breakage, transportation and reconfiguration of reefs (e.g. Chappell, 1980; Storlazzi et al., 2005). Yet, little data was available regarding the hydrodynamic conditions of the forereef of the SCS atolls. Here, we conducted in situ tripod mooring observations (ADCP, ADV & CTD) for at least one tide cycle in 15-18 m water depth at the southeast forereef of three typical atolls – Xiaonanxun (NX), Anda (AD) and Kugui (KG) Reef – in the SCS, respectively, and collected coral sediment samples at different zonation of atolls in September 2017. During the observation periods, tide elevations varied by ca.1 m in all the three sites, with the highest 1.16 m in AD and lowest 0.96 m in KG. Mean flow velocity turns out to be as weak as about 0.1 m/s, with the weakest ~0.05 m/s in KG. Wave influence appears to be strongest in NX, with the significant wave height of ~1 m, in contrast to the 0.6 m and 0.4 m in AD and KG, respectively. The hydrodynamic observations under normal weathers should be able to transport the fine reef debris alone, with limited sediment transport rates of 0.61, 0.01 and 0.64 m3/m per tidal period in the observations in NX, AD and KG, respectively. Coarse coral rubbles and gravels might be only transported during extreme weathers. More observations and modeling work are needed, e.g. simulations of waves’ influence on atoll sedimentary systems’ development with XBeach.  
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As part of the Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics (MedLand) project to create a modeling laboratory for human-landscape interaction, we have developed a suite of landscape evolution tools in the GRASS GIS environment. The core of this tool set is a Python script to estimate sediment transport for hillslopes, gullies/rills, and small channels, and simulate resulting terrain change for high-resolution 3D digital landscapes. Because it takes advantage of raster-optimized routines in GRASS, it is very fast on normal desktop systems, making it ideal for simulating long-term landscape change resulting from human activity, climate change, or other drivers. We provide examples of how this landscape evolution model is being used in the MedLand project.  +
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Assessing the tsunami hazard in regions with infrequent or no instrumental or historical records of tsunamis is a challenge for emergency managers. In the absence of these records, coastal geologists rely on evidence of past tsunami inundation from buried sedimentary deposits to identify the presence of a tsunami hazard and to determine the recurrence of past events. One persistent challenge in assessing tsunami hazard from sandy coastal deposits is inferring the relative magnitude of past tsunamis from characteristics of the deposits. Recent reanalysis of field data from the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and tsunami show that the volume of onshore sandy tsunami deposits is highly correlated with offshore tsunami magnitude, seafloor deformation, and fault slip. To further explore these relationships, we employ a Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic and sediment transport model to simulate onshore tsunami deposit volume from offshore slip of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and tsunami. We use the Satake et al. (2013) tsunami source model to derive the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for the sediment transport simulations. The Delft3D-FLOW model uses van Rijn (2007) sediment transport formulations and coefficients and a two-dimensional, vertically layered grid to model sediment transport with the effect of suspended-sediment induced density stratification on the vertical turbulent mixing. We model how variation in offshore slip affects tsunami deposit volume for a wide range of sediment sources, offshore and onshore slopes, and boundary roughness conditions. Model results show a strong correlation between onshore tsunami deposit volume and adjacent offshore co-seismic slip if ample sediment is available in the model to be eroded and transported. These results are consistent with data from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami at sites with sufficiently wide beaches and without shoreline armoring. We continue to test the model to evaluate sensitivity to parameters that may not be well known for paleo-tsunamis such as width of fault rupture, paleo-topography, and changes in sea level. Ultimately, this approach may be able to reconstruct past tsunami magnitudes and improve assessment of tsunami hazard. * Satake, K., Fujii, Y., Harada, T., & Namegaya, Y. (2013). Time and space distribution of coseismic slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as inferred from tsunami waveform data. Bulletin of the seismological society of America, 103(2B), 1473-1492.  
At a global scale, deltas significantly concentrate people by providing diverse ecosystem services and benefits for their populations. At the same time, deltas are also recognized as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments, due to a range of adverse drivers operating at multiple scales. These include global climate change and sea-level rise, catchment changes, deltaic-scale subsidence and land cover changes, such as rice to aquaculture. These drivers threaten deltas and their ecosystem services, which often provide livelihoods for the poorest communities in these regions. Responding to these issues presents a development challenge: how to develop deltaic areas in ways that are sustainable, and benefit all residents? In response to this broad question we have developed an integrated framework to analyze ecosystem services in deltas and their linkages to human well-being. The main study area is part of the world’s most populated delta, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta within Bangladesh. The framework adopts a systemic perspective to represent the principal biophysical and socio-ecological components and their interaction. A range of methods are integrated within a quantitative framework, including biophysical and socio-economic modelling, as well as analysis of governance through scenario development. The approach is iterative, with learning both within the project team and with national policy-making stakeholders. The analysis allows the exploration of biophysical and social outcomes for the delta under different scenarios and policy choices. Some example results will be presented as well as some thoughts on the next steps.  +
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At the Visual World Investigation Lab of the Nature Research Center, we are developing a module where museum visitors investigate geomorphic and land-use scenarios through a landscape evolution model. Visitors use touchscreen computers to select simplified inputs for the CHILD model. Model visualizations will be produced for each trial in which they run the scenario. For example, visitors can explore the impact of the percentage of impervious surfaces in a section of urbanized Raleigh that will be adjusted by scaling infiltration parameters, and how the headwaters of the Little Tennessee River would differ if the southern Appalachians were still undergoing tectonic uplift. These scenarios provide relatable experiences to visitors, an opportunity to educate them upon the science behind the scenarios, and the purpose and limitations of models. We will first develop the framework of the module to be able to accept scenarios and its inputs, including digital elevation models, such that others can contribute scenarios. This module is early in its conception, thus we will present our initial framework with the intent to elicit feedback from the community.  +
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At the catchment scale, alluvial rivers co-adjust their planform, cross-sectional, and longitudinal geometries in response to changing water and sediment inputs, base level and the transport of this sediment through the fluvial system. In this study, we derive a simple, physics-based model to understand and predict sand-bed river long-profile form and evolution. This model links sediment transport and river morphodynamics, following an analogous approach to that taken by Wickert and Schildgen (2019) for gravel-bed rivers. It allows for planform (width) adjustments as a function of excess shear stress by following Parker (1978); this linearizes the sediment-transport response to changing river discharge, and ultimately suggests a diffusive form for sand-bed river long-profile evolution. Here, we also present model results of gravel- and sand-bed river long profiles under a variety of water- and sediment-supply and base-level conditions to discuss how these may help us to better interpret the geological and geomorphological context of alluvial rivers, and better predict their changes over time. This expression for the long-profile evolution of transport-limited sand-bed rivers provides forward momentum to merge theory and models for gravel-bed and sand-bed river systems, to look at the alluvial river system response as a whole (from bedrock-alluvial transition to the point at which backwater effects become significant) over both human and geological time scales, and to decipher the long-term rate and magnitude of this response to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of fluvial landscapes.  +
At the margins of many glaciers, we observe visually-striking layers of concentrated sediment incorporated into ice near the base of the glacier. Despite the prevalence of these ice-sediment facies, sediment transported in basal ice is rarely quantified in the overall sediment transport budget for glacial systems. Previous facies descriptions have been linked to formation mechanisms that depend on specific configurations of the topography or hydrology beneath a glacier, which remains inconsistent with observations of similar facies across disparate regions, climate zones, and geologic settings. Here, we use detailed descriptions of ice-sediment facies from Mendenhall glacier, Alaska, to inform a numerical model of sediment entrainment in basal ice. We find that the overall volume of entrained sediment is strongly related to the glacier’s thermal regime near the ice-sediment interface. Further, we present a likely mechanism for the formation of dispersed ice facies that explains the natural variability in sediment characteristics observed at Mendenhall glacier and other alpine systems. These results show that ice-sediment facies are a plausible archive for understanding the subglacial environment, even in the absence of additional constraints on temperature or hydrologic connectivity at the bed.  +
Barrier island response to sea level rise depends on their ability to transgress and move sediment to the back barrier, either through flood-tidal delta deposition, or via storm overwash. Our understanding of these processes over decadal to centennial time scales, however, is limited and poorly constrained. We have developed a new barrier inlet environment (BRIE) model to better understand the interplay between tidal dynamics, overwash fluxes, and sea-level rise on barrier evolution. The BRIE model combines existing overwash and shoreface formulations with alongshore sediment transport, inlet stability, inlet migration and flood-tidal delta deposition. Within BRIE, inlets can open, close, migrate, merge with other inlets, and build flood-tidal delta deposits. The model accounts for feedbacks between overwash and inlets through their mutual dependence on barrier geometry.<br><br>Model results suggest that when flood-tidal delta deposition is sufficiently large, barriers require less storm overwash to transgress and aggrade during sea level rise. In particular in micro-tidal environments with asymmetric wave climates and high alongshore sediment transport, tidal inlets are effective in depositing flood-tidal deltas and constitute the majority of the transgressive sediment flux. Additionally, we show that artificial inlet stabilization (via jetty construction or maintenance dredging) can make barrier islands more vulnerable to sea level rise.  +
Barrier islands and other coastal landforms are highly dynamic systems, changing in response a spectrum of disturbances from multi-decadal ‘press’ disturbances like sea-level rise (SLR) to often more intense episodic perturbations like storms. As a result, multiple stable ecomorphological states exist on barrier islands. In this study, we use a probabilistic Bayesian network approach to investigate the likelihood of shifts among alternative equilibrium states on Fire Island, New York under three scenarios of shoreline change driven by sea-level rise (SLR). Specifically, we highlight areas that are most likely (i) to become inundated, (ii) to shift from one non-inundated state (or landcover type) to another (e.g., a forest becomes beach), or (iii) to remain in the current landcover state. We explore the effects of these changes on the availability of coastal ecosystem types, piping plover habitat, and anthropogenic development.  +
Bedload flux is notoriously challenging to measure and model with its dynamics, therefore, remains largely unknown in most fluvial systems worldwide. We present a global scale bedload flux model as part of the WBMsed modeling framework. The results show that the model can very well predict the distribution of water discharge and suspended sediment and well predict bedload. Bedload predictions’ sensitivity to river slope, particle size, discharge, river width, and suspended sediment were analyzed, showing that the model is most responsive to spatial dynamics in river discharge and slope. The relationship between bedload and total sediment flux is analyzed globally and in representative longitudinal river profiles (Amazon, Mississippi, and Lena Rivers). The results show that while, as expected, the proportion of bedload is decreasing from headwater to the coasts, there is considerable variability between basins and along river corridors. The topographic and hydrological longitudinal profiles of rivers are shown to be the key driver of bedload longitudinal trends with fluctuations in slope controlling its more local dynamics. Differences in bedload dynamics between major river basins are attributed to the level of anthropogenic modifications, flow regimes, and topographic characteristics.  +
Bedrock lithology has been shown to strongly influence how rivers and landscapes respond to tectonic perturbations, yet the specific variables and mechanisms that set how lithology controls river erosion are poorly understood. Recent field and modeling work suggests that one important lithologic control on channel response may be the delivery of large, generally immobile boulders from hillslopes to channels. This raises the possibility that differences in boulder delivery rates between lithologies may cause substantial differences in how landscapes respond to tectonics. An intriguing recent study suggested that in the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ) region of northern California, bedrock lithology might control the frequency and size of boulders delivered to channels, and therefore govern channel steepness and river evolution (Bennett et al., 2016). We further test this hypothesis here. The Central Belt of the Franciscan Complex, a mix of sheared graywacke and mudstone, contains large blocks of more resistant serpentinite, greenstone, and amphibolite that are delivered to channels by earthflows. The adjacent Coastal Belt generally lacks such boulders, and sediment delivery to channels is dominated by shallow landsliding. This geologic setting provides a unique opportunity to test whether boulder abundance exerts a first-order control on landscape form. We use a landscape-scale analysis of channel steepness and active width indices, local topographic relief, lithology, and mapped boulder occurrence to understand the differences between the catchments eroding the Central Belt and those eroding the Coastal Belt. We find that channels are steeper in the Central Belt than in the Coastal Belt, both across the whole MTJ region and when averaged over 10-50 km2 subcatchments. Channels are also generally narrower in the Central Belt. This result could reflect lithologic controls or spatial heterogeneity in erosion rates. To control for the latter, we construct clusters of neighboring subcatchments that are free of knickpoints to explore possible controls of lithologic makeup (percent of a subcatchment underlain by Central Belt rocks) on channel steepness independent of erosion rate variations. We find inconsistent relationships between lithologic makeup and channel steepness within a given cluster of catchments with similar baselevel history. Finally, we compared channel segments adjacent to hillslope failures with segments far from failures. Central Belt channels show greater absolute increases in steepness adjacent to hillslope failures, but relative increases in steepness are consistent between the Central Belt and Coastal Belt. Our preliminary results suggest that Central Belt channels are steeper and narrower than Coastal Belt channels, but that the lithological influence on steepness is difficult to disentangle from the effects of spatially variable erosion rates. We are continuing to map in-channel boulder size distributions to assess the relative importance of intra- vs. inter-lithologic variability in setting boulder concentrations and landscape form.  
Besides long-term monitoring in changes of thermal state of permafrost and active layer thickness, the knowledge of permafrost distribution at very fine scales (tens of meters) in discontinuous permafrost is still largely unknown in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). A permafrost island was found by using geophysical investigations in the Heihe River Basin in northeastern QTP. Permafrost island was present at PT10 site beneath alpine steppe and coarse soil with a quality of gravel in surface soil (Fig. 1, Fig. 2). In contrast, permafrost is absent at SFGT site with density land cover area and relatively less gravel. The results showed that the ground surface temperature (5 cm) at PT10 site is lower in winter and higher in summer than the SFG site. The presence of permafrost is caused by soil conditions, especially by high thermal conductivity, based on field investigations. To address the controlling factors of permafrost presentences a 1D heat transfer model is used to compare the ground temperature difference between these two sites by only changing the soil conditions.  +
Block-mantled hillslopes responding to river incision deliver large blocks of rock to channels. These blocks inhibit fluvial erosion by shielding the bed and reducing available bed shear stress. Block delivery by hillslopes in response to channel incision therefore feeds back on the boundary conditions felt by the hillslopes: larger numbers of blocks, or larger blocks, reduce the rate at which the hillslope boundary condition is lowering. This coupled set of feedbacks can lead to oscillatory behavior in both channels and hillslopes with periods of rapid channel incision interspersed with intervals of little to no incision. For a hillslope with a line supply of blocks (such as might originate from a resistant caprock overlying a less resistant layer), we expect that these feedbacks are strong only when the source of blocks is relatively close to the channel. Once the block source has retreated sufficiently far from the channel, blocks will weather away before reaching the channel and the oscillatory channel-hillslope feedbacks described above will cease. Our questions are 1) For how long after initial river incision through a caprock do oscillatory channel-hillslope feedbacks persist? and 2) How far must the block source retreat from the channel before such feedbacks become negligible?<br><br>We use the new BlockLab 2-D landscape evolution model to assess the spatial and temporal extent of oscillatory channel-hillslope feedbacks. We model a channel incising a lithological sequence consisting of a weak layer underlying a resistant caprock. Blocks from the caprock are delivered to the channel and inhibit river incision. We find that at early time, temporal variation in the erosion rate boundary condition felt by the hillslope is significant. As the resistant layer retreats further from the channel, variations in both the channel erosion rate and the resistant layer retreat rate decline. The rate of these reductions in variability with time is set by competition between 1) the ability of the hillslope to deliver multiple large blocks to the channel (a function of initial block size, block weathering rate, and the distance the blocks had to travel before arriving at the channel), and 2) the ability of the channel to overcome the erosion-inhibiting effects of blocks (set by fluvial discharge and the block erodibility coefficient). We find that after enough model time has passed, the resistant layer has retreated far enough from the channel that block effects on the channel are negligible and oscillatory channel-hillslope feedbacks no longer exist. This distance is primarily a function of initial block size and block weathering rate. Our results indicate that channel and hillslope evolution rates in block-mantled landscapes may be highly unsteady, depending on the strength of coupling between the channels and hillslopes.  
A
Breaking waves, especially plunging breakers, generate intense turbulence and is crucial in dissipating incident wave energy, suspending and transporting sediment in the surf zone. Therefore quantifying breaking-induced turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is essential in understanding surf zone processes. Surf zone hydrodynamic data collected at the Large-scale Sediment Transport Facility (LSTF) at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development center were used here. One LSTF case, with irregular waves (3 s peak period), is examined here. This case resulted in dominantly plunging type of breaker. Waves and currents were measured simultaneously at 10 cross-shore locations and throughout the water column, with a sampling rate of 20 Hz. In order to separate orbital wave motion from turbulent motion, an adaptive moving average filter is developed, involving a 5-point moving average, with additional 3-point moving average at sections with more fluctuations. This adaptive moving average filter is able to maintain more wave energy as compared with the results from 7-point moving average, while resolve more turbulence energy as compared with the result from 5-point moving average. The TKE was calculated based on the resolved turbulence. Large TKE was generated at the water surface associated with wave breaking and dissipated rapidly downward. The TKE decreased nearly one order of magnitude downward within 15 cm. The TKE reached a minimum value at approximately 50%-80% of the water depth, and increased towards the bottom due to the generation of bed-induced turbulence. The TKE flux during wave crest and tough indicate that, at the bottom and middle layers of the water column, the TKE is transported dominantly onshore, while for the top layer, it is transported mostly offshore.  +
By using a fixed-mesh approach, morphodynamic models have some difficulty to predict realistic equilibrium hydraulic geometries with vertical banks. In order to properly account for bank erosion without resorting to a complicated moving mesh algorithm, an immersed boundary approach that handles lateral bank retreat through fix computational cells is needed.<br> One of the main goals of the FESD Delta Dynamics Collaboration is developing a tested, high-resolution quantitative numerical model to predict the coupled morphologic and ecologic evolution of deltas from engineering to geologic time scales. This model should be able to describe the creation and destruction of deltas made of numerous channels, mouth bars, and other channel-edge features, therefore requiring an approach that is able to deal with the disruption, destruction, and creation of sub-aerial land. In principle, these sub-aerial land surfaces can be randomly distributed over the computational domain. <br> We propose a new approach in Delft3D based on the volume of fluid algorithm, widely used in the literature for tracking moving interfaces between different fluids. We employ this method for implicitly tracking moving bank interfaces. This approach easily handles complicated geometries and can easily tackle the problem of merging or splitting of dry regions characterized by vertical vegetated banks.  +
By using spatially-varying estimates of seabed bottom drag (z0) the performance of ocean current and tide numerical models may be improved. To an extent, the seabed database dbSEABED is able to supply these values from data on the seabed materials and features. But then adjustments for varying dynamic (wave, flow) conditions are also required. So the data and model must work closely together. We developed methods for calculating inputs of z0 for circulation models in this way. Preliminary outputs from this new globally capable facility are demonstrated for the NW European Shelf region (NWES).  +
Cellular automata models have gained widespread popularity in fluvial geomorphology as a tool for testing hypotheses about the mechanisms that may be essential for the formation of landscape patterning. For instance, studies of braided rivers using cellular automata modeling suggested that erodible banks are an essential characteristic for formation of the braid-plain morphology. In wetlands with emergent vegetation and complicated flow patterns, distilling the relevant, nonlinear interactions to a relatively simple set of rules that can be used in cellular automata modeling poses challenges, but the advantage of doing so lies in the ability to perform sensitivity analyses or examine system evolution over millennia. Here I show how a hierarchical modeling strategy was used to develop a cellular automata simulation of the evolution of a regular, parallel-drainage patterned landscape in the Everglades. The Ridge and Slough Cellular Automata Landscape model (RASCAL) suggested that this landscape structure is stable only over a small range of water-surface slopes (the driving variable for flow)—a result that both explains the limited distribution of low-gradient parallel-drainage systems worldwide and would likely have not been detected had a non-hierarchical CAM been used. Additional sensitivity analyses with RASCAL show how interactions between flow, vegetation, and sediment transport can lead to a wide variety of other regular and amorphous landscape patterns, depending on the relative strength of physical and biological feedbacks. Comparisons between RASCAL and well-known CAM models of braided stream dynamics raise interesting questions about the level of complexity that need to be incorporated into models of transitional (low- to high-energy) environments such as wet meadows and small/intermittent streams.  +
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Changes in landscape structure are known to affect species macroevolution largely by altering habitat connectivity. Species can disperse across a greater area when habitats expand. Habitat fragmentation reduces gene flow and increases rates of speciation. Conversely, a shrinking habitat increases the likelihood of species extinction. We integrated macroevolution processes (dispersal, speciation, and extinction) into the landscape evolution modeling toolkit called Landlab. Here, we present a new Landlab component, BiotaEvolver that tracks and evolves the species introduced to a model grid. In one model, surface process components evolve the landscape and BiotaEvolver evolves the species in response to topographic change or other characteristics of the model set by the user. BiotaEvolver provides a base species and users can subclass this object to define properties and behaviors of species types. We demonstrate BiotaEvolver using scenarios of drainage rearrangement and stream species. Stream captures and high macroevolution process rates occurred within a limited combination of parameters and conditions in hundreds of model runs. The number of species increased most rapidly after a response period following a perturbation. Species numbers declined then became stable after this period.  +
Changes in upstream land-use have significantly transformed downstream coastal ecosystems around the globe. Restoration of coastal ecosystems often focuses on local-scale processes, thereby overlooking landscape-scale interactions that can ultimately determine restoration outcomes. Here we use an idealized bio-morphodynamic model, based on estuaries in New Zealand, to investigate the effects of both increased sediment inputs caused by upstream deforestation following European settlement and mangrove removal on estuarine morphology. Our results show that coastal mangrove removal initiatives, guided by knowledge on local-scale bio-morphodynamic feedbacks, cannot mitigate estuarine mud-infilling and restore antecedent sandy ecosystems. Unexpectedly, removal of mangroves enhances estuary-scale sediment trapping due to altered sedimentation patterns. Only reductions in upstream sediment supply can limit estuarine muddification. Our study demonstrates that bio-morphodynamic feedbacks can have contrasting effects at local and estuary scales. Consequently, human interventions like vegetation removal can lead to counterintuitive responses in estuarine landscape behavior that impede restoration efforts, highlighting that more holistic management approaches are needed.  +
Changing sea level and ice volume since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26-19 ka) has been an intensively studied topic for decades, and yet we have still not been able to adequately close the water volume budget at the LGM. At the LGM, global sea level was depressed by approximately 125-135 m relative to the present level. Past researchers have attempted to account for the storage of this water as an estimated 52*106 km3 of land-based ice. However, relative sea level, ice sheet morphology, and isostacy studies at local and regional scales have been unable to reasonably place high enough ice volumes to meet this global total, accounting for only approximately 120 m of sea-level change. This discrepancy has resulted in the so-called ‘missing ice’ problem. We propose that some portion of this ‘missing’ water was stored not as ice, but in lakes and groundwater. Thus far, no studies have attempted to determine the volume of water stored in lakes and groundwater at the LGM. Groundwater storage could potentially account for a large volume of water, reducing the missing water volume by a significant margin. Differing topography and recharge rates may have resulted in greater terrestrial water storage, which can help us to close the water budget. Indeed, many large proglacial and pluvial lakes are known to have existed and may indicate higher groundwater levels. Furthermore, assessing groundwater levels at 500 year intervals from the LGM to the present day can provide insights into changes in water storage and inputs to the ocean over time. It is challenging to assess groundwater levels with precision since various factors, including evapotranspiration, topography, and sea level all play a role in controlling groundwater level at a particular location. However, a recent model (Reinfelder et al., 2013) was able to estimate modern groundwater levels on a global scale. By using this model in combination with modelled topography and climate data for the LGM and each 500 year time step, we are able to compare the volume of water stored in the ground from the LGM to the present day to test whether groundwater would be a viable reservoir for LGM water storage. The model provides depths to water table, thus allowing computation of changing storage volumes. The model covers the entire globe at a resolution of 30 arc-seconds. The large datasets and iterative nature of the model require MSI’s computational power to perform the calculations. So far, preliminary results have shown that over a metre of additional sea-level equivalent water was stored in the ground at the LGM.  
Chemical erosion of regolith is of wide interest due to its role in Earth’s topographic evolution, the supply of nutrients to soils and streams, and the global carbon cycle. Theory and experiments suggest that chemical erosion rates (W) should be strongly controlled by physical erosion rates (E), which affect W by removing weathered regolith and regulating mineral supply rates to the regolith from its underlying parent material. A global compilation of field measurements reveals a wide range of relationships between W and E, with some sites exhibiting positive relationships between W and E, some exhibiting negative relationships, and others exhibiting a flat relationship within uncertainty. Here we apply a numerical model to explore the variety of W-E relationships that can be generated by transient perturbations in E in well-mixed regolith. Our modeling results show that transient relationships between W and E during erosional perturbations can strongly deviate from steady-state relationships. These deviations ultimately result from the time lag in changes in W following imposed changes in E. As a consequence of the lag, a hysteresis develops in plots of W versus E during transients in E. This yields a positive relationship between W and E at some times during a transient perturbation, a flat relationship at other times, and a negative relationship at other times. The shape and duration of these transient hystereses can be modulated by climate and lithology, as the lag time increases linearly with a characteristic regolith production time and decreases with a characteristic mineral dissolution time, both of which are affected by climatic and lithologic factors. Our results show that even in the absence of variations in climate and lithology, however, a range of W-E relationships can be generated by a single perturbation in E. To the extent that these model results capture the behavior of chemical and physical erosion in natural landscapes, these results may aid interpretation of field measurements of W and E.  
Climate change and reduced water availability in arid regions has important implications for how channels will change as they adjust to a new steady-state characterized by different riparian populations. While much study has been devoted to the effects riparian vegetation has on fluvial processes (Tal & Paola, 2010; Osterkamp & Hupp, 2010; Corenblit et al., 2009), the complexity of natural channels obscures exactly how these feedbacks modify long-term channel evolution, making prediction of the larger impacts of vegetation change on channel morphology difficult. In order to isolate the impact vegetation has on morphology, single channels that are variably vegetated along their length are desirable for study because flow conditions and long-term sediment flux change minimally between major tributaries (Bertoldi et al., 2011). Comparisons made in such dryland channels in Henry Mountains, Utah, USA, where groundwater springs juxtapose vegetated and un-vegetated reaches allow us to examine two hypotheses: first, that disruptions to normal fluvial processes caused by in-channel vegetation produce distinct morphological responses to floods at the scale of single flood events, and, second, that these responses accumulate on the timescale of multiple floods to produce channel morphologies in vegetated reaches that are fundamentally different from those in unvegetated reaches. Analysis of repeat airborne LiDAR data for these areas provides an opportunity to quantify morphological parameters and elevation differences, and to attempt to correlate these metrics with quantitative metrics of vegetation. Field observations from October, 2017 in this region agree with the results of LiDAR analyses and indicate that the presence of dense vegetation seems to produce more uniform cross-sectional shape with narrow, deeply incised channels supported by intense rooting on banks, and a longitudinal profile that is characterized by frequent vegetation-supported, non-bedrock knickpoints. Future work will involve modelling flood flows to determine the degree and areal extent of channel reworking during a flooding event and the influence of vegetation on shear stress for comparison with LiDAR differencing results.  
Climate change has altered the frequency and intensity of hydrologic events like precipitation and flood, yielding vulnerability of communities dwelling in coastal and inland flood plains. Flood prediction and mitigation systems are necessary for improving public safety and community resilience all over the world at Country, continental and global scales. Numerical simulation of flood event has become a very useful and commonly used tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. One of the major challenges in hydraulic modeling is accurate description of river and floodplain geometries. The increased availability of high-resolution DEMs (e.g. LiDAR data) alleviates this challenge for floodplains but (with the exception of blue/green LiDAR surveys) not for river channels. Here we investigate the effect of river bathymetry data on numerical simulations of flood events. Two numerical models (GSSHA and Mike 21) were used for comparison in the results. Three channel geometry inputs were simulated for three river reaches of different sizes: DEM-captured elevation (water surface), hydraulic geometries (empirical estimation), and observed river bathymetry.  +
Climate change has led to unprecedented precipitation events in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile. On the coast of the El Salado watershed, legacy mine tailings infilled the watershed-ocean connection, while the river channel has been altered both by tailings and urbanization. Loss of life and destruction of infrastructure in a large flood event in 2015 resulted from the coupling of anthropogenic geomorphic changes with unusual climate events. We carry out unsteady two-dimensional simulations fully coupled with the sediment concentration to identify the influence of tailing deposits. The analysis incorporates high-resolution topography data from both pre- and post-flood, where the pre-flood scenario represents the presence of tailings, and the post-flood scenario reflects partial erosion of these deposits. Results highlight the important role of topographic alterations in enhancing the hazard to people and critical infrastructure. Additionally, an upscaling methodology based on porosity is presented for an urban flood simulation in Santiago de Chile, adjacent to the Andean foothills. In this model, topographic information is included at the subgrid-level to optimize CPU time at the cost of some loss in the accuracy of the results. We analyze how accuracy is affected by gradually increasing grid resolution, specifically when estimating flood extent and associated hazards. Results suggest that the cell size can be increased up to the street width, capturing the main flow paths and hazards while significantly reducing the CPU time employed by classical models. The integration of an upscaling scheme to model concentrated flows coupled with surface dynamics is particularly valuable for comprehensively assessing flood hazards, meeting real-time decision-making needs.  +
Climatically controlled surface processes redistribute mass and modulate solid-Earth stress fields, potentially driving changes in tectonics. Examples of climatically-influenced tectonics exist in glaciated orogens, however this phenomenon has not been well documented in fluvial systems. Here we describe a previously undiscussed feedback between hillslope and fluvial processes that buffers climate-tectonic interactions, helping to explain the dearth of observations of climatically influenced tectonics in fluvial systems. Using remote sensing and field investigation, we quantify production, deposition, and transport of landslide sediments resulting from the 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Southern Taiwan, which delivered record-breaking rainfall triggering more than 22,000 landslides across 7800km^2. An annual landslide catalog facilitates use of area-volume scaling to estimate amount of landslide material distributed across a strong northward gradient in tectonic uplift in Southern Taiwan. Landslide volume and frequency exhibit similarly positive trends with distance from the southern tip of the orogen. Exploiting a wealth of publicly available imagery and elevation data, we map sediment aggradation throughout fifteen drainage basins and observe 10’s of meters of aggradation with the distribution tightly coupled to areas of greatest exhumation. Sediment transport modeling across the orogen suggests that areas of highest exhumation will be inundated with sediment over three orders of magnitude longer than less exhumed basins. Estimating the frequency of events like Typhoon Morakot, we expect the most active basins in the study area to have their channels buried by landslide sediment for up to 50% of any given time period, while less active basins will be able to incise nearly 100% of the same time period. This feedback suggests that as landscapes become more exhumed, the erosional buffering effects of extreme storms and earthquakes that cause widespread landslides are amplified, driving a negative feedback between climate driven surface processes and tectonics in fluvial systems.  
Close to half a billion people live in deltaic regions worldwide, including in a number of mega-cities. River deltaic landforms act as central locations for agricultural production, livestock farming, and hydrocarbon extraction. The understanding of riverine sediment fluxes and associated delta morphology changes, aids in planning engineering works such as identification of flood-prone areas, installation of coastal defense structures, dam construction, and restoration activities of extensively altered areas. The overarching goal of the study is to elucidate the interconnectivity between fluvial fluxes and associated landform changes in large global deltas. The following research questions are investigated: (1) Are changes in fluvial sediment flux to the delta directly linked to changes in delta morphology? (2) What are the magnitudes and trends of riverine sediment fluxes that can be expected throughout the 21st century? A multifaceted research approach combining (a) satellite remote sensing analysis of delta morphology changes (progradation/degradation), and (b) numerical modeling of riverine water and sediment fluxes, is used on selected large river deltas globally. Major outcomes of the study indicate that the synoptic capability of remote sensing provides a useful reconnaissance tool to infer on the rates at which the deltas change. An overview of global delta change is presented with a special focus on case studies with severe degradation and interesting flux estimates. The outcomes of the study yield a number of novel insights into fluvial fluxes of the 21st century and transform our analytical capabilities for studying delta morphology change and sediment flux dynamics in large rivers, globally.  +
A
Close to half a billion people live on deltas, many of which are threatened by flooding. Delta flooding also imperils valuable ecological wetlands. In order to protect deltas, it is critical to understand the mechanisms of flooding and evaluate the roles of different forcing factors. Delft3D, a widely used 3D hydrodynamic and sediment transport model, has been applied to the Wax Lake Delta in Louisiana in order to explore the impacts of wind, waves, and vegetation during extreme conditions. Using wind and pressure field inputs of Hurricane Rita in 2005, the simulation indicates that the deltaic hydrodynamics and morphologic changes are determined by the interactions of all three factors. Wind shows a large impact on water level and velocity, especially in the shallow water zone, where water level increases by ~2 m and water velocity increases by ~1 m/s. Waves, on the other hand, demonstrate almost no effect on water level and velocity, but significantly increase sediment transport due to increasing bed shear stress. Sediment deposition occurs primarily at the coast, when water floods higher elevated land and velocities start to decrease, leading to a significant drop in bed shear stress. Vegetation, a critical factor that influences deltaic hydrodynamics, is represented in the model by adding 2D roughness to the bed. The vegetated wetland and its surrounding area show a notably different pattern in erosion and deposition compared to the unvegetated simulations. The vegetated islands receive significant deposition, while adjacent channels become much more eroded because water is routed through channels when the surrounding vegetated islands are more difficult to erode. To take into account the impact plant roots have on the soil (increase in soil strength and therefore an effectively reduction in erosion), a new root routine has been added to Delft3D. This routine mimics this process by increasing the soil critical shear stress required to reduce erosion. The modeled results indicate that more deposition appears on the vegetated root area, while more significant erosion simultaneously occurs at those sides of these islands that are facing the ocean. This illustrates that, while vegetation can protect land from erosion, it can also intensify erosion in the surrounding area. Therefore, the use of natural vegetation as a protection against coastal erosion processes requires more research.  
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Coastal aquifers, vital freshwater sources for over a billion people globally, often face saltwater intrusion, especially in island freshwater lenses. Despite extensive studies on sea-level rise, storm surges, and over-pumping, the impact of droughts on coastal aquifers, particularly barrier island aquifers reliant solely on aerial recharge, remains understudied. Understanding recharge and salinization processes is crucial for sustainable water resource management amid potential climate change impacts. This study introduces a novel approach to assess a freshwater lens's response to drought conditions, incorporating in-situ observations, geophysical measurements, and numerical modeling. Examining a Northeastern U.S. barrier island's shallow unconfined aquifer during the 2020 drought, the research reveals a reduction in the freshwater lens volume during reduced recharge, emphasizing the vulnerability to droughts and the potential for recovery. Comprehensive studies in this area are essential for informed water resource management.  +
Coastal communities facing erosion require beach maintenance for property protection and recreation. While some communities may have the means to pay for sand nourishment, others may benefit from their neighbor’s alongshore-transported sediments. If communities expect to free-ride off beach nourishment carried out by a neighbor, incentives favoring inaction may lead to narrower beaches overall. Recent work coupling human and natural systems found that coordination between neighboring communities is preferable economically to each community acting independently. Contrasting past work, we model two communities acting without knowledge of a jointly determined economically optimal nourishment program. Instead, nourishment behavior is triggered by a traditionally imposed minimum beach threshold and bounded by a predefined seaward edge. The goal is not to limit sand loss; rather, nourishment decisions are based on separate or joint benefit-cost assessments for two communities. We compare two management approaches: (1) sequential/decentralized decisions, where the updrift community chooses first and the downdrift community reacts second; and (2) simultaneous/coordinated decisions where both communities make a joint choice. We test how variable up/downdrift property values affect outcomes under these two approaches. Results suggest that communities do not always favor coordinating simultaneously. When both up- and downdrift communities have high property values, sequential/decentralized decisions are favored, leading to updrift over-nourishment to maintain beach width. This enhances alongshore sediment availability, thus providing higher marginal benefits for downdrift communities whom under-nourish. When the property values of the updrift community are low and the property values of the downdrift community are high, however, the outcome results in abandonment of property by the updrift community instead of coordinating with the downdrift community. Overall, we find that the distribution of property values across neighboring communities can be a driver for both strategy selection and the decision-making process.  
Coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health are vulnerable to extreme precipitation, flooding, and water-quality impacts. Integrating a hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) into the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport modeling system (COAWST), which includes ocean (ROMS), atmosphere (WRF), surface-wave (SWAN, WAVEWATCHIII), sediment (CSTMS), and sea-ice components, offers the potential to investigate compound flooding and the dispersal of contaminants, sediments, and other material at the land-ocean boundary. Here, the new model coupling is described, along with an application to Hurricane Florence. Extreme precipitation during Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina in September, 2018, led to breaches of hog-waste lagoons, coal-ash pits, and wastewater facilities. In the weeks following the storm, historic freshwater discharge carrying pollutants, sediment, organic matter, and other debris was released to the coastal ocean, contributing to beach closures, algal blooms, hypoxic conditions, and other ecosystem impacts. The Cape Fear river basin, North Carolina’s largest watershed, is used as a case study. Progress in model coupling applied to this region includes (1) a two-way coupled ROMS and WRF-Hydro simulation in which fluxes between the ocean and hydrology models are computed from the pressure gradient at the ocean-land boundary, and (2) a one-way coupled simulation in which a WRF-Hydro simulation provides river point-source forcing in ROMS. The work as part of the one-way coupled simulation demonstrates how the pathways of land-sourced tracers can be tracked in the coastal ocean; a suite of different flood and wind scenarios are studied and used to map the arrival and departure times of threshold-exceeding contaminants that contribute to swimming advisories and other impacts. Next steps are described for continuing the ocean-hydrology model coupling efforts to improve forecasts of compound flooding and water quality impacts.  
Coastal erosion and wetland loss are affecting Louisiana to such an extent that the loss of land between 1932 and 2016 was close to 5,000 km2. To mitigate this decline, coastal protection and restoration projects are being planned and implemented by the State of Louisiana, United States. The Louisiana Coastal Master Plan (CMP) is an adaptive management approach that provides a suite of projects that are predicted to build or maintain land and protect coastal communities. Restoring the coast with this 50-year large-scale restoration and risk reduction plan has the potential to change the biomass and distribution of economically and ecologically important fisheries species in this region. However, not restoring the coast may have negative impacts on these species due to the loss of habitat. This research uses an ecosystem model to evaluate the effects of plan implementation versus a future without action (FWOA) on the biomass and distribution of fisheries species in the estuaries over 50 years of model simulations. By simulating effects using a spatially-explicit ecosystem model, not only can the changes in biomass in response to plan implementation be evaluated, but also the distribution of species in response to the planned restoration and risk reduction projects. Simulations are performed under two relative sea level rise (SLR) scenarios to understand the effects of climate change on project performance and subsequent fisheries species biomass and distribution. Simulation output of eight economically important fisheries species shows that the plan mostly results in increases in species biomass, but that the outcomes are species-specific and basin-specific. The SLR scenario highly affects the amount of wetland habitat maintained after 50 years (with higher levels of wetland loss under increased SLR) and, subsequently, the biomass of species depending on that habitat. Species distribution results can be used to identify expected changes for specific species on a regional basis. By making this type of information available to resource managers, precautionary measures of ecosystem management and adaptation can be implemented.  
Coastal flooding is an increasingly prominent hazard in the northeast United States, causing both property damage and disruption of daily life. Tide gauge records provide historical water level data and are used to estimate current return periods of storm tides (tide level plus storm surge) from both hurricanes and nor’easters. We calculate the interannual joint probability exceedance curves for select tide gauges in the Philadelphia, New Jersey, and New York City megaregion using the quasi‐nonstationary skew surge joint probability method (qn‐SSJPM) from Baranes et al. (2020). Analysis of the probability of storm tides for hurricane versus nor’easter seasons will be discussed, including geographic variations of the storm tide exceedance curves. Results from this study can be compared to storm climatology and used by social scientists and city planners to assess risk associated with the flood hazard in the area. By understanding the ways that probability of storm tide in summer and winter may change in the future, communities can better plan and prepare for future hazards.  +
Coastal landscapes are dynamic, subject to drowning by sea level rise, erosion driven by alongshore transport, and inundation by large storm events. Coastlines are also highly developed. Along the U.S. coasts, communities continuously develop and implement beach management strategies to protect coastal infrastructure and maintain recreational value. From sediment source to sink, littoral cells often span many coastal communities. Even as physical processes grade along these littoral cells, separate communities along this coast possibly enact different management strategies. By expanding upon an existing alongshore-coupled dynamic model of coastal profile and barrier evolution, we analyze the feedbacks between alongshore and cross-shore processes as well as human response to local shoreline change across multiple communities within the same littoral cell. Incorporating the possibility of intercommunity cooperation allows us to valuate variable coastal resilience strategies for communities within a littoral cell, particularly the benefit of coordinated versus uncoordinated activities. Both sediment transport processes and a cost-benefit analysis for each community determine optimal beach management strategies. Model results provide insights useful for understanding coastal processes and planning, allowing for more robust coastal management decisions, which depend upon future rates of sea-level rise.  +
Coastal-plain depositional systems such as fluvial deltas are archives of past external (allogenic) forcing, such as sea-level variations, and their evolution can be described by two geomorphic boundaries: the alluvial-basement transition or upstream boundary, and the shoreline or downstream boundary. Patterns of landward/seaward migration of the shoreline (i.e., transgression/regression) and the alluvial basement transition (i.e., coastal onlap/offlap) in the rock record are often used for reconstruction of past sea-level changes. Theories for stratigraphic interpretation, however, need to be adapted to deal with internal (autogenic) processes that could play a significant role, but are to date largely unexplored. In particular, in-situ organic matter accumulation via plant growth has generally received little attention despite accounting for a significant volume fraction in most fluvio-deltaic plains and likely affect their response to sea level variations. To fill this knowledge gap, we develop a geometric model for the long-profile evolution of a fluvio-deltaic environment that accounts for sea-level cycles and organic sediment dynamics. The model assumes that sedimentological processes (i.e., inorganic and organic sedimentation) operate to preserve a linear geometry for both the delta plain or topset, and the subaqueous offshore region or forest. Changes in topset length can occur via shoreline transgression/regression, or coastal onlap/offlap, and the magnitude and timing of these changes can be directly related to the amplitude, phase and frequency of the sea-level variations. The model predicts that the maximum organic fraction occurs when the organic matter accumulation rate matches the accommodation rate, an observation consistent with field observations from coal geology. Further, we find that organic matter accumulation during the topset aggradation and organic matter erosion and decay during topset degradation generally results in substantial increase in the coastal onlap/offlap amplitude, which can result in an overestimation of the sea-level variations. These results are consistent with the discrepancy in sea-level amplitude reconstructions between sequence stratigraphic models and geochemical models over the Cretaceous.  
Coasts are among the most intensely used environments on the planet, but they also present dynamic and unique hazards including flooding and erosion. Over the next century, these risk are likely to intensify across many coastal localities due to changes in environmental conditions, including sea level rise and changing wave climate patterns as induced by climate change. Managing these hazards and protecting vulnerable areas is challenging and requires an understanding of the behavior of coastal systems and longer-term prediction of their future evolution in the face of a changing climate. Many existing one-dimensional coastal evolution models can effectively simulate the evolution of coastal environments. However, due to their 1D nature, they are unable to model the additional and combined effects of a variable water level and sea level rise. Hence, a new model, the Coastline Evolution Model 2D (CEM2D), has been built that is capable of simulating these processes. CEM2D has been built from the 1D parent model – the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) - that was originally developed by Ashton et al. (2001), Ashton and Murray (2006) and Valvo et al. (2006). CEM2D has been developed accordingly to the underlying assumption and mathematical framework of CEM, but applied over a two-dimensional grid. At the core of this framework is the calculation of longshore sediment transport rates using the CERC formula and Linear Wave Theory. Wave shadowing calculations are also used to ensure that sediment transport is negligible in shadowed areas. The distribution of material across the shoreface is controlled by a steepest descent formula that routes sediment from higher to lower elevations across the domain according to defined thresholds, whilst maintaining the average slope angle. CEM2D provides a step forward in the field of coastal numerical modelling. It fills a gap between one-dimensional models of shoreline change that provide insights into the fundamental processes that control coastal morphodynamics and more complex and computationally expensive two- and three-dimensional models that are capable of simulating more complex processes and feedbacks. Key applications of CEM2D include improving our understanding of the meso-scale morphodynamic behaviour of coastal systems, their sensitivities to changing environmental conditions and the influence that climate change may have on their evolution over centennial to decadal timescales.  
Conservation biologist, modeler, blogger, nature photographer, animal friend, swing dancer, Ecopathologist… All these describe Adrian Dahood, who tragically lost her life along with 33 others in a diving boat fire off the coast of California. She will be remembered fondly, and her legacy as a scientist and policy expert will remain alive within the scientific community. Please check out her photos, blogs, postcards and scientific papers, and I hope she can bring a smile to your face as well.  +
Coupled process-based numerical models have the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of the drivers of coastal change by allowing for detailed simulations of the processes involved within each model core of the coupling. However, producing accurate hindcasts and forecasts with these coupled frameworks can be challenging due to a wide array of parameters that interact nonlinearly across and within the individual model cores and the potentially substantial computational cost that limits both the number and duration of simulations that can be reasonably performed. Additionally, many model parameters (e.g., wave asymmetry and skewness or sediment transport coefficients) that are critical for model calibration are unitless coefficients in the model formulations and thus cannot be readily measured in the field. Here, we use Windsurf, a coupled beach-dune modeling system that includes Aeolis, the Coastal Dune Model, and XBeach, paired with two surrogate neural network models, to produce a pair of hindcasts and forecasts to replicate observed modes of dune and beach morphological change on a developed barrier island on the US Atlantic coast (Bogue Banks, North Carolina). The first neural network aids in the calibration process by allowing for the prediction of Windsurf’s error surface over thousands of potential parameterizations to rapidly identify a potential best calibration before actually running the model. Windsurf is then run within a genetic algorithm to further hone the collection model parameter settings. Once Windsurf is finished running, we use the output to train a second neural network which contains a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layer to produce five-year forecasts of dune crest height and dune toe elevation. We test our results by comparing them to observed data collected in the field between 2016-2020 using Real-Time Kinematic Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS) and find our forecasts (from the hindcasts) produce reasonably accurate predictions of dune morphology change at interannual scale.  
Coupling models from different domains (e.g., ecology, hydrology, geology, etc.) is usually difficult because of the heterogeneity in operating system requirements, programming languages, variable names, units and tempo-spatial properties. Among multiple solutions to address the issue of integrating heterogeneous models, a loosely-coupled, serviced-oriented approach is gradually gaining momentum. By leveraging the World Wide Web, the service-oriented approach lowers the interoperability barrier of coupling models due to its innate capability of allowing the independence of programming languages and operating system requirements. While the service-oriented paradigm has been applied to integrate models wrapped with some standard interfaces, this paper considers the Basic Model Interface (BMI) as the model interface. Compared with most modeling interfaces, BMI is able to (1) enrich the semantic information of variable names by mapping the models’ internal variables with a set of standard names, and (2) be easily adopted in other modeling frameworks due to its framework-agnostic property. We developed a set of JSON-based endpoints to expose the BMI-enabled models as web services, through storing variable values in the network common data form file during the communication between web services to reduce network latency. Then, a smart modeling framework, the Experimental Modeling Environment for Linking and Interoperability (EMELI), was enhanced into a web application (i.e., EMELI-Web) to integrate the BMI-enabled web service models in a user-friendly web platform. The whole orchestration was then implemented in coupling TopoFlow components, a set of spatially distributed hydrologic models, as a case study. We demonstrate that BMI helps connect web service models by reducing the heterogeneity of variable names, and EMELI-Web makes it convenient to couple BMI-enabled web service models.  +
Crop models are used to simulate crop development, yield and irrigation requirements, but their performance can be influenced by environmental and management conditions such as climate and irrigation strategies. Hence, performing a sensitivity analysis on these models is crucial to identifying influential parameters which informs model calibration. Here, we performed a global sensitivity analysis (Morris Screening method) on crop yield and irrigation on 34 crop parameters using the AquaCrop-OSPy model. This analysis is done for corn in Sheridan, KS under different water treatments (irrigated and rainfed) for varying meteorological scenarios represented by past years annual precipitation (normal-2021, wet-2019 and dry-2002). Thresholds of 0.3t/ha and 20mm are used for yield and irrigation respectively to identify influential parameters. Overall, parameter importance varies for yield and irrigation: parameters related to biomass and yield, root and canopy development, and irrigation strategy are the most influential for yield while those related to irrigation strategy, and root and canopy development are the most influential for irrigation. In general, yield was responsive to fewer parameters in rainfed conditions and simulations with drier meteorological conditions. The normal and wet scenarios have similar influential parameters with varying order of influence for yield under irrigated conditions. However, under rainfed conditions, the normal scenario only has two influential parameters (minimum effective rooting depth and the excess of potential fruits, a parameter related to biomass and yield), while 8 parameters related to biomass and yield production, water stress, and root development are influential during the wet scenario. Yield under irrigated conditions during the wetter years (receiving normal and high precipitation) tends to be impacted by water and temperature stress parameters. The influential parameters will further be analyzed using the Sobol method to calculate each parameter's influence on the output’s variance and interaction with other parameters, and ultimately used to guide model calibration.  
Debris flows pose a hazard to infrastructure and human life. However, predicting debris flows remains a challenge due to uncertainty in initiation mechanisms, and the difficultly in appropriately parameterizing the resistance equations that describe flow velocities. Additionally, one of the limitations to progress in modeling debris-flow timing is the lack of empirical data from natural watersheds that can be used for parameter estimation and validation of predictions. Most quantitative measurements of debris flows are conducted in flumes, or unique watersheds where debris flows are known to occur annually, both of which suggest particularly remarkable conditions that may not reflect the majority of conditions where debris flows are manifested. This research addresses those challenges by using measured debris-flow timing in nine watersheds that were burned by a wildfire in 2009 to calibrate and test debris flow model parameterizations. Debris-flow timing was captured using pressure transducers attached to the channel bed. We used a kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model that we developed in python using the landlab environment to model flow timing. We separated the nine study watersheds into two categories: calibration and testing. For the calibration watersheds, model parameters were estimated based on prior research and then changed iteratively using a storm with known rainfall to minimize an objective function of the observed and modeled flow timing. Following hundreds of model realizations, we arrived at a set of best-fit parameters for saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and the Manning’s roughness parameter (n). We found that a single value of Ks could be used in each of the model watersheds because, following wildfires, this parameter is typically reduced to very low values with a relatively small variance. In contrast n varied systematically as a function of upstream contributing drainage area, and thus values of n could be estimated for uncalibrated basins. When Ks and n were applied to test basins without any calibration we found that a reasonable result in estimated debris-flow timing was attained. These results suggest that given the appropriate scaling estimates it may be possible to estimate debris-flow timing within minutes and to capture multiple debris-flow surges separated by several hours.  
Debris flows pose a significant threat to downstream communities in mountainous regions across the world, and there is a continued need for methods to delineate hazard zones associated with debris-flow inundation. Here we present ProDF, a reduced-complexity debris-flow inundation model for rapid hazard assessment. We calibrated and tested ProDF against observed debris-flow inundation at eight study sites across the western United States. While the debris flows at these sites varied in initiation mechanism, volume, and flow characteristics, results show that ProDF is capable of accurately reproducing observed inundation extent across different geographic settings. ProDF reproduced observed inundation while maintaining computational efficiency, suggesting the model may be especially applicable in rapid hazard assessment scenarios.  +
Debris flows, sediment laden gravity driven fluvial processes, are a common issue in Southern California. They often occur during peak streamflow, making precipitation an important predictor for debris flow activity. However, the low temporal sampling of precipitation data used to calculate streamflow is often insufficient to forecast peak flows accurately. Here, we evaluate the effect of precipitation data resolution on discharge using 30-minute IMERG-early data averaged over different time intervals to model streamflow. We apply the results to a dimensionless discharge threshold model to predict debris flow locations. The streamflow values were calculated with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and the debris flow model was programmed to be compatible with the Basic Model Interface (BMI). BMI was selected for this project because it standardizes model coupling, which enabled a hydrologic driven landslide model to run efficiently. The landslide model follows Tang et al. (2019) to produce dimensionless discharge and debris flow threshold values for stream segments. This can be used to predict where we would likely see a debris flow based on the given streamflow data. We ran these models with precipitation data of different temporal resolutions and evaluated their effect on dimensionless discharge. The model was able to capture a portion of debris flows using higher temporal resolution precipitation data. Of the 138 stream segments evaluated, 122 were predicted to have a dimensionless discharge value above the calculated thresholds when using 30-minute data, which largely matched observations from aerial imagery. In contrast, lower temporal resolution data did not capture these results. Initial debris flow predictions using high resolution precipitation data coincide in stream segments that experienced landslides. We conclude that high resolution precipitation data is critically important for predicting debris flow events.  +
Decision making is a cultural process fundamental to slowing environmental destruction in all its guises. Although crucial to understanding environmental decision making, working toward a viable interdisciplinary model that could be used across problems and sites is not without obstacles. In order for coupled models to capture realistic lag times and interactions between social choices and the environment, algorithms of decision making must incorporate the influence of spatial-temporal local differences. This is especially true for coupled human-earth system models or agent-based models designed to inform policy. Here we provide a case study from the Paraná Delta of Argentina where a neighborhood assembly fights against pollution in the delta caused by an engineering failure. We combine components of a decision making framework with concepts from cultural and geographic theory, and then filter the combination through ethnographic description and interpretation to track how local culture influences decisions, and hence, lag times between actions and outcomes. Although fundamental to human decision making processes, sociocultural dynamics are often left out of formal behavioral modules coupled to environmental models. Through this experiment, we expand the capacity of such a framework for carrying cultural meaning and social interaction.  +
Degradation of ice-rich permafrost is caused by rapid Arctic warming. Likely this degradation already has altered the water balance by increasing runoff and flooding. But here we ask, how do the hydrological changes in river systems, in turn, affect the permafrost conditions? How does river flooding affects permafrost thermal state in floodplains and deltas? What if the timing of river flooding changes with Arctic warming? We develop a first-order heat budget approach to simulate evolving river flood water temperature over the seasonal inundation period. Solar radiation, air temperature and wind control the different components of heat exchange between the atmosphere and the river water surface. An additional term specifically calculates the exchange of heat between the river water and the channel bed and subsurface. Then, this river and flood water temperature is coupled to the Control Volume Permafrost Model (CVPM), which models detailed thermal state of shallow permafrost. We apply the combined model to the Kuparuk river floodplain and delta, a medium-sized river system on the North Slope of Alaska. Results indicate that permafrost underlaying the floodplain warms during inundation, and the active layer thickness (ALT) can increase for more several meters with sustained standing water. Permafrost underlying the floodplain farthest laterally from the main channel is only warmed by the short-lived spring snowmelt flood. We find that earlier arrival of the spring freshet and associated earlier inundation onset, as well as the increase of river discharge can significantly increase subsurface permafrost temperature, and lead to the deepening of the active layer. The sedimentary characteristics of the deposits in the floodplain are an important controls on the response of permafrost thermal state to inundation. River corridors, especially in the continuous zone of permafrost in the Arctic, are increasingly vulnerable to future changes in timing and magnitude of freshwater flooding as a result of earlier spring snowmelt and river breakup, and increasing river discharge.  
Delivery of large blocks of rock from steepened hillslopes to incising river channels inhibits river incision and strongly influences the river longitudinal profile. We use a model of bedrock channel reach evolution to explore the implications of hillslope block delivery for erosion rate-slope scaling. We show that incorporating hillslope block delivery results in steeper channels at most erosion rates, but that blocks are ineffective at steepening channels with very high erosion rates because their residence time in the channel is too short. Our results indicate that the complex processes of block delivery, transport, degradation, and erosion inhibition may be parameterized in the simple shear stress/stream power framework with simple erosion-rate-dependent threshold rules. Finally, we investigate the effects of blocks on channel evolution for different scenarios of hydrologic variability, and compare and contrast our results with those of more common stochastic-threshold channel incision models. We show that hillslope-derived blocks have a different signature in erosion rate-slope space than the effects of constant erosion thresholds, and propose characteristic scaling that could be observed in the field to provide evidence for the influence of hillslope-channel coupling on landscape form.  +
Delta environments, on which over half a billion people live worldwide, are sustained by sediment delivery. Factors such as subsidence and sea level rise cause deltas to sink relative to sea level if adequate sediment is not delivered to and retained on their surfaces, resulting in flooding, land degradation and loss, which endangers anthropogenic activities and populations. The future of fluvial sediment fluxes, a key mechanism for sediment delivery to deltas, is uncertain due to complex environmental changes which are predicted to occur during the coming decades. Fluvial sediment fluxes under environmental changes were investigated to assess the global sustainability of delta environments under potential future scenarios up to 2100. Climate change, reservoir construction, and population and GDP (as proxies for other anthropogenic influences) change datasets were used to drive the catchment numerical model WBMsed, which was used to investigate the effects of these environmental changes on fluvial sediment delivery. This method produced fluvial sediment fluxes under 12 scenarios of climate and socioeconomic change which are used to assess the future sustainability of 47 deltas, although the approach can be applied to deltas, rivers, and coastal systems worldwide. The results suggest that fluvial sediment delivery to most deltas will decrease throughout the 21st century, primarily due to anthropogenic activities. These deltas will likely become unsustainable environments, if they are not already, unless catchment management plans are drastically altered.  +
Delta integrity is a function of adequate fluvial sediment supply since the form at the shoreline is the result interaction between fluvial and basinal processes. Globally, sediment supply to river deltas has been on the decline. Specifically, present sediment supply to the Niger Delta is less than what is required for a sustained growth. Anthropogenic intervention in the lower Niger Basin and within the delta is the main control of the decrease in sediment supply. Changes in shore form is a main consequence of shifting volume of sediment supply in the Niger Delta region. This study attempts a morphodynamic analysis of shoreline changes along the Niger Delta using recent high resolution remote sensing techniques within the Google Earth Engine Platform. Attempt will also be made to characterise the spatial or temporal variability in shoreline dynamics along the Niger Delta with a view to establish the drivers of change. The study will also attempt to model the future evolution of the Niger Delta given present forcing scenarios. The research is within the overall framework of ensuring a sustainable development within the Niger Delta coastal zone in order to preserve its huge economic and ecological potentials for future generation.  +
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Delta morphology is traditionally explained by differences in fluvial energy and wave and tidal energy. However, deltas influenced by similar ratios of river to marine energy can display strikingly different morphologies. Other variables, such as grain size of the sediment load delivered to the delta, influence delta morphology, but these models are largely qualitative leaving many questions unanswered. To better understand how grain size modifies deltaic processes and morphologies we conducted 33 numerical modeling experiments using the morphodynamic physics-based model Delft3D and quantified the effects produced by different grain sizes. In these 33 runs we change the median (0.01 – 1 mm), standard deviation (0.1 – 3 φ), and skewness (-0.7 – 0.7) of the incoming grain-size distribution. The model setup includes a river carrying constant discharge entering a standing body of water devoid of tides, waves, and sea-level change. The results show that delta morphology undergoes a transition as median grain size and standard deviation increase while changing skewness has little effect. At low median grain size and standard deviation, deltas have elongate planform morphologies with sinuous shorelines characterized by shallow topset gradients ranging from 1 x 10<sup>-4</sup> to 3 x 10<sup>-4</sup>, and 1 - 8 stable active channels. At high median grain size and standard deviation, deltas transition to semi-circular planform morphologies with smooth shorelines characterized by steeper topset gradients ranging from 1 x 10<sup>-3</sup> to 2 x 10<sup>-3</sup>, and 14 - 16 mobile channels. The change in delta morphology can be morphodynamically linked to changes in grain size. As grain size increases delta morphology transitions from elongate to semi-circular because the average topset gradient increases. For a given set of flow conditions, larger grain sizes require a steeper topset gradient to mobilize and transport. The average topset gradient reaches a dynamic equilibrium through time. This requires that, per unit length of seaward progradation, deltas with steeper gradients have higher vertical sedimentation rates. Higher sedimentation rates, in turn, perch the channel above the surrounding floodplain (so-called ‘super-elevation’) resulting in unstable channels that frequently avulse and create periods of overbank flow. That overbank flow is more erosive because the steeper gradient causes higher shear stresses on the floodplain, which creates more channels. More channels reduce the average water and sediment discharge at a given channel mouth, which creates time scales for mouth bar formation in coarse-grained deltas that are longer than the avulsion time scale. This effectively suppresses the process of bifurcation around river mouth bars in coarse-grained deltas, which in turn creates semi-circular morphologies with smooth shorelines as channels avulse across the topset. On the other hand, finest-grained (i.e. mud) deltas have low topset gradients and fewer channels. The high water and sediment discharge per channel, coupled with the slow settling velocity of mud, advects the sediment far from channel mouths, which in turn creates mouth bar growth and avulsion time scales that are longer than the delta life. This creates an elongate delta as stable channels prograde basinward. Deltas with intermediate grain sizes have nearly equal avulsion and bifurcation time scales, creating roughly semi-circular shapes but with significant shoreline roughness where mouth bars form.  
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Delta shoreline structure has long been hypothesized to encode information on the relative influence of fluvial, wave, and tidal processes on delta formation and evolution. However analyses and comparisons of deltaic shorelines have typically been qualitative or utilized relatively coarse quantitative metrics. We ask whether robust quantification of shoreline structure would enable mapping of deltas to a physically-based space in which the relative influence of the different processes could be compared, as has recently been done using a sediment flux budget approach. To explore this question, we analyze Landsat-derived shorelines from more than 50 deltas across the globe. Since the shorelines exhibit variability on scales ranging from tens of meters to tens of kilometers, we propose a multiscale characterization of shoreline structure by mapping the shorelines to a univariate series, through a macro-scale convexity-informed framework, and using localized multi-resolution analysis via wavelets to quantify shoreline variability across a range of spatial scales within and across deltas. Specifically, we focus on the relative energy contributed by meso-scale features (river mouths) and small-scale (less than 1 km scale features). We find that distinct classes of deltas naturally emerge in that metric space, which we attribute to the different processes driving the sources and sinks of sediment in these systems. The analysis suggests the potential towards a quantitative, process-based classification of delta morphology via multi-scale analysis of shoreline structure.  +
Deltaic, estuarine, and barrier coasts are experiencing unprecedentedly fast rates of morphological changes, which constitute a threat to people, infrastructures, and economies. Predicting these changes in the future could help to develop cost-efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here I present recent progresses in simulating large scale and long term coastal evolution using a new morphodynamic-oriented model. Through opportune simplifications the model simulates tides, surges (hurricanes), wind waves, swells, sand/mud/organic sediment, stratigraphy, and vegetation in a numerically-efficient way. The model reproduces the self-organization of barrier islands and the formation of marshes in the backbarrier/estuarine region. The model emphasizes how mud supply is a major driver for the long-term retreat of marshes. The model also simulates how riverine inputs into backbarrier basins – for example through man-made river diversions – can reduce both marsh edge erosion and barrier island retreat.  +
Deltas are home to approximately 7% of global population and play a crucial role in regional food security owing to the favorable conditions for agriculture. As a result, these areas are often heavily irrigated as humans strive to use the local water resource to maximise production. This study aims to incorporate irrigation practices into the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to determine the impact of irrigation on the flood dynamics of the Mekong Delta, one of the most intensively irrigated deltas. Irrigation data is based on global databases of irrigation area, crop type and crop calendars, supplemented with local information allowing for this approach to be used across irrigated areas around the world. This study therefore builds upon the localized estimates of flood storage capacity of paddy fields through the region and generates a new estimate across a wider area that is subsequently used to assess the impact on the hydrodynamics and flood inundation pattern. It is envisaged this approach can be used for future analysis of the impact of the changing irrigation practices of the Mekong Delta.  +
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Deltas are the important interface between continents and oceans, providing home to over half a billion people. The unique environment supports a wide variety of diverse ecosystems and is highly susceptible to a broad spectrum of interacting forces. Therefore it is critical to understand its current and future changes, especially against the background of climate change and human impact, something that could be explored by studying its historical evolution process. Delta evolution is mainly governed by: a) sediment load supply from its contributing river, and 2) ocean dynamics (e.g. waves, tides). Fluvial sediment supply to a delta fluctuates over time either e.g. due to shifts in climate or, on shorter time scales, due to human interference (e.g. deforestation which could increase sediment supply or the emplacement of dams and reservoirs that reduces the sediment supply). How does this affect the morphology of a delta? Waves interact on deltas by dispersing fluvial sediment, reshaping its shoreline, how will it be illustrated in delta’s shape and morphology? To study this, we explored hypothetical delta evolution scenarios given the following boundary conditions: a medium size upstream drainage basin (~80,000km2) with, as base case, a typical Mediterranean climate. The analysis is done through coupling two numerical models, HydroTrend and CEM. HydroTrend, a climate-driven hydrological transport model, is applied to replicate freshwater and sediment flux to the delta, and subsequently a coastline evolution model (CEM) is applied to simulate the according changes in the delta’s coastline morphology. A component-modeling tool (CMT) developed by CSDMS, is used to couple the models for this study. Several scenarios are considered that take into account: 1) stepwise increasing fluvial sediment supply, to the delta and 2) the release time of these stepwise sediment increases by changing the storm intensity for periods of time. Preliminary model experiments will be presented demonstrating: 1) the capability of the CMT to couple models that represent different process domains and were developed and designed independently (i.e. without the intentions of such coupling), 2) the impact of changes in fluvial sediment on deltas.  
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Deltas are threatened not only by climate and environmental changes (sea level rise, soil salinization, water shortages and erosion), but also by socioeconomic factors (high population density, intensive land use). These processes threaten people’s livelihoods and wellbeing, and as a result, there is a growing concern that significant environmental change induced migration might occur from deltaic areas. Migration, however, is already happening for economic, education and other reasons (e.g. livelihood change, marriage, planned relocation, etc.). Migration has multiple, interlinked drivers and depending on the perspective, can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon. The DECCMA project (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) studies migration as part of a suite of adaptation options available to the coastal populations in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh, the Mahanadi delta in India and the Volta delta in Ghana. It aims to develop a holistic framework of analysis that assesses the impact of climate and environmental change, economics and governance on the migration patterns of these areas. The project will test plausible future scenarios and evaluate them by considering a range of perspectives. The dynamic Bayesian Network integrated model of the DECCMA project formally brings together the project elements in fully coupled, quantitative assessment framework. The presentation introduces the overall integration concept and describes the household decision-making component in detail. This component is based on a detailed household survey from delta migrant sending and receiving areas. We describe the model structure, and contrast the model setup and sensitivities across the three study areas. In doing so we illustrate some key causal relationships between changes in the environment, livelihoods and migration decision. The outputs of the integrative modelling is used to objectively evaluate the simulated environmental, social and economic changes for decision makers including the benefits and disadvantages of migration as an adaptation option.  
Deltas exhibit spatially and temporally variable subsidence due, in part, to faulting that lowers the land surface over time, thereby converting subaerial land to open water. In light of expected billion-dollar investments globally to redirect sediment via channel diversions and thus restore delta land, it is crucial to understand whether discrete faulting-induced subsidence events drive distributary channel networks to reorganize. Here, we take inspiration from examples from two deltas of faulting with documented surface expression and with distinct flux-to-shoreline symmetries: the symmetric-flux Selenga River delta (Russia) and the asymmetric-flux Mississippi River delta (Louisiana, USA). Using simulations with the DeltaRCM numerical model resembling these deltaic landscapes, we examine distributary network reorganization to faulting-induced subsidence over a range of surface area and slip displacement. Our findings indicate that in a symmetric-flux delta system, the duration of fault surface expression is strongly and non-linearly related to displacement, because slip above a threshold length-scale drives wholesale channel network reorganization, whereas smaller displacement does not. In contrast, displacement is only weakly related to network reorganization in the asymmetric-flux simulations. In this environment, faults located in areas of the delta not maintaining a surface-water connection to the main channel at the time of the subsidence event do not instigate network reorganization. Moreover, for the range of surface area and slip displacement we examined, areas of faulting also do not significantly influence the distributary network at later times. Nevertheless, all faulting events in simulated deltas, with both symmetric and asymmetric flux, create accommodation space and so inhibit the construction of subaerial land to some degree.  +
Densely populated coastal deltas worldwide face cascading flood and salinization hazards associated with sea-level rise, storm surges, dwindling sediment supplies, and land subsidence. One of the greatest hurdles to hazard prediction stems from quantifying the land-subsidence component, which exhibits significant spatial and temporal variations across any given delta. Here, we present a delta-subsidence model capable of quantifying these variations. The model is built upon fundamental principles of effective stress, conservation of mass, and Darcy flow; as well as constitutive relations for porosity and edaphic factors (e.g. roots, burrows). For an input sediment column and deposition rate, we quantify the depth-profile of vertical land motion over time, allowing for direct comparison with field observations spanning various depths, timescales, and methods (e.g., GPS stations; Rod-surface-elevation tables; C14 and OSL ages). Preliminary results demonstrate the model can accurately resolve decadal-scale subsidence patterns on the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, including subsidence hotspots associated with fine-grained lithologies, buried Pleistocene paleovalleys, and river embankments constructed in the 1950’s. This predictive subsidence model can improve assessments of coastal flood hazards on the Ganges-Brahmaputra and other deltas worldwide; and help inform ongoing billion-dollar restoration efforts facing crucial decisions as to where and when coastal barriers, sediment diversions, and settlement relocations will be implemented in the coming century.  +
Deposition of sediment from upland sources has the potential to increase flood risk in downstream riverside communities by reducing the carrying capacity of rivers and causing overbank flow. However, the morphodynamic response of rivers to variable upstream sediment supply remains poorly understood, and operational flood models do not account for sediment in flood prediction. We introduce a framework for integrating source-to-sink sediment dynamics using coupled hydrological, hydrodynamic and landscape evolution models to quantify and better predict flooding events. A Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model is used to simulate upland streamflow and land coverage over numerical grids of river networks. Modules from the Python toolkit, Landlab, generate and route sediment from mountain sources (i.e. landslides, exposed glacial till) in the same domain. Streamflow and sediment from these upland models are delivered to a Delft3D hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphodynamic model to characterize the effects of sediment-routing on lowland, coastal floodplains and investigate the impact on flood risk. This modeling framework is tested for three Puget Sound, WA basins: the Nooksack River, Skagit River and Mt. Rainier drainage, where gage analysis performed on historic USGS indicates regional morphodynamic patterns, with potential implications on flood risk. To ensure accurate model-coupling, the model ensemble is tested in an idealized, Landlab-generated domain. Funded by the National Science Foundation.  +
Depressions are inwardly-draining regions of digital elevation models (DEMs). For modeling purposes, depressions are often removed to create a "hydrologically corrected" DEM. However, this compromises model realism and creates perfectly flat surfaces that must be handled in some other way. If depressions are not removed, the movement of water within them must be modeled. This is challenging because depressions are often deeply nested, one inside the other. Here, we present a novel data structure – the depression hierarchy – which uses a forest of binary trees to capture and abstract the full topographic and the topologic complexity of depressions. The depression hierarchy can be used to quickly manipulate individual depressions or depression networks, as well as to accelerate dynamic models of hydrological flow, as shown in our Fill-Spill-Merge poster. While the algorithm is implemented in C++ for performance reasons, we have also developed a Python wrapper using the pybind11 library. This enables users to capitalize on the strengths of both languages. The Python wrapper also streamlines the process of integrating the depression hierarchy into the CSDMS model interfaces and Landlab. Open source code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/r-barnes/Barnes2019-DepressionHierarchy and https://github.com/r-barnes/pydephier.  +
Depressions—inwardly-draining regions—are common to many landscapes. When there is sufficient water availability, depressions take the form of lakes and wetlands; otherwise, they may be dry. Depressions can be hard to model, so hydrological flow models often eliminate them through filling or breaching, producing unrealistic results. However, models that retain depressions are often undesirably expensive to run. Our Depression Hierarchy poster shows how we began to address this by developing a data structure to capture the full topographic complexity of depressions in a region. Here, we present a Fill-Spill-Merge algorithm that utilizes depression hierarchies to rapidly process and distribute runoff. Runoff fills depressions, which then overflow and spill into their neighbors. If both a depression and its neighbor fill, they merge. In case studies, the algorithm runs 90–2,600× faster (with a 2,000–63,000× reduction in compute time) than commonly-used iterative methods and produces a more accurate output. Complete, well-commented, open-source code with 97% test coverage is available on Github and Zenodo.  +
Depth averaged, adaptive, Cartesian grid models have been used effectively in the modeling of tsunamis, landslides, flooding, debris flows and other phenomena in which the computational domain can be reasonably approximated by a logically Cartesian mesh. One such code, GeoClaw (D. George, R. J. LeVeque, K. Mandli, M. Berger), is already part of the CSDMS model repository. A new code, ForestClaw, a parallel library based on adaptive quadtrees, has been extended with the GeoClaw library. This GeoClaw extension of ForestClaw gives GeoClaw users distributed parallelism and a C-interface for enhanced interoperability with other codes, while maintaining the core functionality of GeoClaw. We will describe the basic features of the ForestClaw code (www.forestclaw.org) and present results using the GeoClaw extension of ForestClaw to model the 1976 Teton Dam failure. If time permits, we will also describe on-going work to model dispersion and transport of volcanic ash using the Ash3d (H. Schweiger, R. Denlinger, L. Mastin, Cascade Volcanic Observatory, USGS) extension of ForestClaw.  +
Despite the essential role sub-aerial reef islands on atolls play as home to terrestrial ecosystems and human infrastructure, the morphologic processes and environmental forcings responsible for their formation and maintenance remain poorly understood. Given that predicted sea-level rise by the end of this century is at least half a meter (Horton et al., 2014), it is important to understand how atolls and their reef islands will respond to accelerated sea-level rise for island nations where the highest elevation may be less than 5 meters (Webb and Kench, 2010). Atolls are oceanic reef systems consisting of a shallow reef platform encircling a lagoon containing multiple islets around the reef edge (Carter et al., 1994). Atolls come in a variety of shapes from circular to rectangular and size from 5 to 50 km width of the inner lagoon (Fig. 1a and 1b). I want to understand why atolls vary in their morphology and whether wave climate is the primary driver of atoll morphology. Previous work has highlighted the importance of wave energy on reef morphology and atoll morphology (Stoddart, 1965; Kench et al., 2006). Around a given atoll, the morphology of the reef islands may change significantly from small individual islets or larger continuous islets that are more suitable for human habitation (Fig. 1c and 1d). I will create a global dataset of atoll morphometrics to compare to external forcing, e.g. comparing reef width to the mean wave climate. Using Google Earth Engine, a cloud-based geospatial analysis platform to collate Landsat imagery, I can measure a range of morphometrics including atoll size and shape, reef flat width, reef island size and shape, and distribution of reef islands around an atoll. I will compare these morphometrics to global waves simulated by WaveWatch3. By compiling a global dataset of atoll morphometrics, I am able to better understand the impact of wave climate on atoll morphology and long-term evolution. References: Carter, R.W.G., Woodroffe, C.D.D., McLean, R.F., and Woodroffe, C.D.D., 1994, Coral Atolls, in Carter, R.W.G. and Woodroffe, C.D. eds., Coastal evolution: Late Quaternary shoreline morphodynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 267–302. Horton, B.P., Rahmstorf, S., Engelhart, S.E., and Kemp, A.C., 2014, Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300: Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 84, p. 1–6, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.002. Kench, P.S., Brander, R.W., Parnell, K.E., and McLean, R.F., 2006, Wave energy gradients across a Maldivian atoll: Implications for island geomorphology: Geomorphology, v. 81. Stoddart, D.R., 1965, The shape of atolls: Marine Geology, v. 3. Webb, A.P., and Kench, P.S., 2010, The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific: Global and Planetary Change, v. 72.