HPCCprojects:Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth: Difference between revisions

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==Publications and presentations==
==Publications and presentations==
Bhaskar, A. and C. Welty, 2012. Water Balances along an Urban-to-Rural Gradient of Metropolitan Baltimore, 2001-2009. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience. 18(1), 37-50. doi: 10.2113/​gseegeosci.18.1.37.
Bhaskar, A.S. , C. Welty and R.M. Maxwell (2011), Spatiotemporal Variability of the Urban Water Budget and Implications for Distributed Modeling, 2011 Fall Meeting Supplemental, Abstract H51P-01.
Bhaskar, A.S., C. Welty, A. Seck, R. Maxwell, C. Jantz, S. Drzyzga, R. Sanderson, A. Miller, G. Lindner, J. Cole (2011), Watershed flow dynamics of the Baltimore Region, Baltimore Ecosystem Study Annual Meeting, 19 October 2011, Baltimore, MD.


==Links==
==Links==

Revision as of 06:09, 6 April 2012


Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth

Project description

The objective of this project is to link an urban growth model (SLEUTH) with a fully-coupled, physically-based three-dimensional hydrologic model (PARFLOW-CLM) to evaluate the effects of growth on water availability and limits to water supply using the Baltimore metropolitan region as a case study. The urban growth modeling will consist of a rigorous and fully validated implementation of the SLEUTH model coupled with a spatial statistical model of urban suitability and demographic data. This approach will define a suitability map for urban land cover based on the conditions that are associated with current urban land and areas of recent urban land cover change. Landscape variables, such as soil suitability and non-urban land cover (e.g. forest and agriculture) will be used to define appropriate conditions for urbanization. Socio-economic variables, including lands that are protected through regulatory policies or parks, population density, and others, will also be included. In addition to providing a platform where both landscape characteristics and socio-economic variables can be integrated, this model will provide the opportunity to test and quantify the influence of each of these variables in either attracting or resisting development. Because the model will have a better representation of the landscape in terms of where development is more or less likely to occur, we also anticipate an improvement in the model’s performance. Implementation of the hydrologic component of the project will include intensive field studies at the local scale that will focus on a single highly urbanized watershed, Dead Run, which is a tributary to the Gwynns Falls, the primary study watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study NSF-funded long-term ecological research site. Detailed process studies will be carried out in conjunction with application of the EPA SWMM model to achieve an integrated understanding of controls on water stores and fluxes at the subwatershed scale in a highly urbanized area. Subwatershed fine-scale modeling results results will then be used to determine large-scale effective properties as inputs to PARFLOW CLM of the entire metropolitan region. Combining a physically-based regional hydrologic model with an urban growth model will allow an assessment of the coupled feedbacks between growth projections (and the socio-economic variables that affect growth) and surface and subsurface water resources. Changes in stream baseflow and groundwater availability may in turn influence regulatory decisions on development permits in exurban areas.

Objectives

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Time-line

9/1/07 - 8/31/12

Models in use

ParFlow

Results

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Users

Funding

National Science Foundation, Biocomplexity of Coupled Natural and Human Systems

Publications and presentations

Links