2021 CSDMS meeting-062

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Joshua Sargent  choose to not submit an abstract for this conference.



Currently, coastal flood hazard studies use static, present-day bathymetry when modelling future sea level rise impacts. However, this approach does not account for how coasts and estuaries will change as result of sea level rise, both naturally and through human engineered response. Storm surge and tidal influence within estuaries are sensitive to slight variations in morphology, which will also be compounded by changes in sea level. As estuaries become more urbanized, modifications such as stop banks and causeways will also play a contributing factor to estuarine morphology. This research aims to explore the effects of natural and anthropogenic morphological change in estuarine environments on flood hazard and risk. This project focuses on the case study area of the Waihou-Piako River Estuary in the Hauraki Plains; this area was chosen as it is economically importance for agriculture and known to be vulnerable to flooding. Delft3D hydrodynamic modelling will be utilized to study the effects of storm-tide flooding on this system for present, past, and future sea level rise conditions. The effects of human modifications, both present and hypothetical, will included in the models and evaluated. By using additional modelling to evaluate simulations of various climate scenarios on future flood risk, this project hopes to influence the decision-making process for flood risk planning in this and other coastal estuarine areas throughout New Zealand.